CURRENT LOCATION: Tied to a mooring ball near Cayo Pirata, in Ensenada Honda, Culebra, Puerto Rico

18 18.400' N, 065 17.842' W

Although she is still 2,500 miles away, BERTHA has me a little bit worried. She is currently moving just slightly north of due west at a speed of 14 mph, a path which puts Culebra directly in her sights. The big question is if and when she will turn to a more northerly direction. If you compare NOAA's projected path from 24-hours ago (see previous blog post) to today, you will note that the underlying models are suggesting that she may make it further to the west than previously thought. Not good, not good at all.

From what I understand, that all-important shift to the north is dependent upon two major steering influences:

1) The forecast predicts a weakness will occur in the large high pressure system which exists to the north of Bertha. This weakness will serve as an open door for BERTHA to head north. We will have to wait until Bertha makes it to the weak spot, near 50-55W before we will see if she will pass through the door.



2) The relative strength of Bertha when she reaches that weakness in the high pressure system. A stronger Bertha will help fuel her through that open door and head northward. A weaker Bertha may bypass the opportunity and continue with her generally westward status quo. It is interesting to note that it may be in our best interest to hope for a stronger Bertha.

Factors which affect her strength include sea surface temperatures and wind shear. Currently, sea surface temperatures are a little on the cool side, which does not support an immediate strengthening of the storm. Wind shear (a common killer of tropical cyclones) is currently low so Bertha does not face any threats on that front. If the wind shear remains low and sea surface temperatures increase, we could see Bertha upgraded to hurricane status over the course of the next few days. Are we really sure we want a stronger Bertha?

Stay tuned as all eyes aboard Prudence are on the lookout to our east, fingers crossed.