CURRENT LOCATION: Tied to a mooring ball near Cayo Pirata, in Ensenada Honda, Culebra, Puerto Rico

18 18.400' N, 065 17.842' W

The projected path for tropical storm BERTHA continues to close in on our location. An eventual turn to the north is looking less and less promising. The open door in that high pressure system to the north is moving eastward and is not as pronounced as was originally expected. Bertha is likely to pass on by without a second look.

Also, she is moving faster today, meaning that our time to make decisions regarding where we wish to ride this one out is rapidly diminishing. It is likely that we will be seeing some evidence of tropical storm conditions as early as Tuesday night.

How strong she is going to be is still in question. Currently, Bertha is moving over an area with relatively cool sea temps (~77 deg F). This is not enough energy to support any strengthening; however, in a day or so, she should be moving over warmer waters. Therefore, we would expect her to gain strength on Sunday and Monday.

On Tuesday, she is expected to face some increased wind shear. Hopefully, that wind shear will take some of the bite out of Bertha before we have a chance to meet her in person.

In the meantime, we plan to do a little exploration by kayak today. We will re-visit the few spots we have found where Prudence might hide from what is to come, and begin to consider our timing and hurricane strategy in some detail.