CURRENT LOCATION: Anchored in Ensenada Honda, near town on Culebra
18 18.326' N, 065 17.979' W

The morning has been a flurry of mouse clicks. I awoke at 6AM, one hour after the release of the latest NOAA update. Believe me, I am as anxious as anyone for this information, but I was up until midnight reading the 11PM update last night. Then, of course, we got more rain. After yet another late night round of closing hatches, it was tough to get back to sleep. (As a quick aside from the more threatening weather situation, Sheryl and I must say that we are getting a little weary of being damp ALL the time). If it is not rain, then it is relatively high humidity. For more reasons than one, we are currently begging for winter to hurry up and arrive.

Now, back to IKE. With lots of new data to consider, let's take a look at current conditions:

IKE (5:00 AM 9/05)
Status: CAT 3 HURRICANE
Max winds: 125 MPH
Range of hurricane force winds: OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES
Range of tropical storm force winds: OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
Position: 23.7 N, 61.0 W
Movement: WSW at 15 MPH
Distance from us: ~ 460 MILES from CULEBRA
Conditions at weather buoy 41043 (~190 miles north of Culebra): wind=4kts; gusts=6kts

As expected, IKE has weakened to a Cat 3 hurricane. Of course, that is like saying that the panther perched on the tree branch above you only weighs 125 lbs, rather than 140 lbs. Not to look a gift horse in the mouth, though, we will take any evidence of a weaker storm and hope for continued trends in that direction. In addition to weakening intensity, the storm is smaller than it was yesterday. Combine that with the fact that it made some good northward progress and things are looking quite good for us. However, I should note that the movement has shifted to the westsouthwest. The key question is how much southing will IKE make in the near future?



Presently, it is dead calm here (another mirror surface on the bay), and exceptionally calm at our early warning weather buoy out in the Atlantic to our north. Regular data from that buoy along with satellite images will define the next two days for us. According to the forecast, IKE should be around 300 miles due north of us by tomorrow afternoon. That means that we may be able to breathe a slight sigh of relief on Sunday. Hopefully, there will be a little downtime before we have to do it all again with Tropical Storm JOSEPHINE (currently 2,000 miles from Culebra). The return of sunny skies and tradewind breezes for a few days would certainly be welcomed by the crew of Prudence.