Running From A Possible Cyclone
04 November 2012 | Neiafu, Vava'u Group, Kingdom of Tonga
The 'Fiji Low' is now being called a 'Tropical Depression' and some models showed it coming to our position in the Ha'apai Group of Tonga. 'Our position' is boat talk for where we are right now, latitude and longitude. It's crazy because this storm has not formed yet, it is only predicted to form on the computer models. But we must make decisions based on the models that we have. Friends of ours from the states, Carlos and Marijke who are past cruisers themselves and members of Chico Yacht Club, have emailed updated information they are getting off of the internet. Along with what we are able to get using our sailmail/boat email we are making the decision whether we should hunker down here, go south and hunker down there, or run back north to the safest spot in the area where we were nearly three weeks ago. Our mates on Cheers and we on Buena Vista figured better safe than sorry so we left Ha'afeva yesterday and sailed the 85 miles overnight back north to Neiafu. WE ARE NOW SAFELY MOORED IN NEIAFU HARBOR which is considered one of the better 'cyclone holes' in the South Pacific. Don did not want to 'go backwards' but the huge knot in my stomach insisted. It's interesting that in a stressful situation, adrenalin kicks in and I'm able to stay calm dealing with whatever is happening at that moment without much panic. But it is totally different if something stressful is coming in two or three days from now. My stomach gets twisted up, a feel headachey and don't sleep well. At night 'the committee' in my head hashes over the details ad nauseum and won't take a break. Knowing that this storm may be in our future, all I want is to do SOMETHING to find some mental relief. As soon as we lifted anchor and headed north the knot in my stomach released and I knew we were doing the right thing. Our friends on Ladybug had just arrived in the Ha'apai Group. We talked to them before we left to go back north. They were not so anxious to take off again, instead talked about going to Tatafa Island where Buena Vista hunkered down during the big blow last week. They talked about using two anchors and that the gribs didn't look so bad. This morning Bob McDavitt, the New Zealand weather guru said in his Weathergram: "Late Tuesday a tropical low is likely to form near Fiji and then deepen rapidly and move southeast across southern Tonga/Minerva possibly with gales and then go off to the SSE. Avoid. It might earn itself a name as cyclone number 1 for the South Pacific season 2012/13". The 'C' word? Geez. I'm glad we're up here but I'm also worried about LadyBug and other friends south of us. Like us, many other boats pulled out of crossing to NZ because of this storm. Many are now sitting in Nuku'Alofa, at the island of Tongatapu in Southern Tonga, maybe 160 miles south of here. It is possible that they will get 30-40 knots sustained winds, and that is if the storm does not grow in intensity. Say a quick prayer.