Kaimusailing

The weather phenomenon was peculiar. We had had a cool front come through with lots of rain and the ambient temperatures were lower with a breeze that helped even more. Then we had the coldest air over us and no wind. The sky was completely clear with no clouds at all. It was chilly. I went about the day with no sense of urgency, while the boatyard worked feverishly moving boats into the new area near New Point Peter Road. By noontime I noticed it was warm, indeed it was ninety and getting hotter and hotter. There was no breeze to take away the heat or cool us. I had wasted the day trying to get an impossible streaming video "package" to work on linux. After lunch I was down where the large boatyard thermometer is located, and it is in the shade, and it read 99 degrees. Whoah, I said. I tapped it and it rose to 100. It wasn't keeping up with the heat.
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With no accomplishments to report I can comment on the Louis Vuitton race series in Bermuda. That is what I have been obsessed with. After all the practice racing videos loaded up on YouTube, I have been wondering how it is all going to sort out, who is going to be eliminated, just one boat, who is it going to be that is out of the competition for the America's Cup.
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Most of the talk was that Ben Ainslie Racing and Groupama Team France were the most likely to end up on the bottom. That is surmised from the sailing performances we saw in the practice racing videos uploaded to YouTube. The channel is myislandhomeBDA, and it looks like he is not allowed to upload any more now that the competition is real and the races count.
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Let's say you had a very fast boat. Would you trounce every one you met, or sandbag, back off, not let them see what you could do. That is the theory that clouds the unofficial results that we've been allowed to see for free on YouTube. Who is really going for it, and who is sandbagging, we will only see the answer to those questions when the racing is for real. And now it is for real, but not really totally for real. The organizers have tried to make the America's Cup World Series relevant by giving 2 points to the victors to carry into this Louis Vuitton competition. The runner up carries one point forward. Thus, Ben Ainslie, the overall winner of the World Series, starts out with two wins, and Jimmy Spithill, the runner up, carries forward one point into the Louis Vuitton series. Also, this qualifying series is going to determine who is left to contend for the Louis Vuitton championship cup.
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It is a round robin of 6 teams to eliminate one, then exclude Jimmy Spithill of the USA boat, resulting in 4 boats to sail against one another to find an overall winner to challenge for the America's cup. The winner of the round robin carries a point into the challenger series. The organizers have given these points to make the round robin relevant. You could have two teams even in wins and losses in the Louis Vuitton series, but if one had that point carried over from the round robin, they would be the challenger.
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So, Team Oracle USA, who will not be in the challenger series, is in the challenger's round robin. Strange rules. They can kick someone up or down, depending on their ability to win or lose at will. They can win the round robin and deprive any of the challenger boats of carrying over that extra point.
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So far, after the first day of the round robin, Oracle has won its two races, and with its carry over point from the world series, has 3 points. Ben Ainslie Racing, the UK boat, BAR, carried over 2 points and had a 1-1 result the first day. That gives them 3 points also. However, they incurred damage in that loss and it may be so bad that they will have to pull out of the competition. That's where the presence of Oracle in the defender's round robin starts to have an effect. With BAR out, there are just 4 boats left in the round robin, plus Oracle. All boats will get an automatic win in their scheduled race against BAR, who has lost to Japan and won over Sweden. That will give New Zealand two extra wins, Oracle two, France two, but only one to Sweden, and one more to Japan. If BAR goes home due to damage, there will be no challenger boat eliminated by this series. The pecking order will be determined and the highest ranked boat will sail against the lowest, probably France, and the remaining two will sail off to face France's opponent for the Louis Vuitton championship cup. It really could be any of New Zealand, Japan, and Sweden. So you have Dean Barker of Japan, Nathan Outerridge of Sweden, or Peter Burling of New Zealand getting to face Jimmy Spithill for the America's Cup.
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I'm writing this before the second day of racing, and I predict that it will be Dean Barker who comes out of this as the challenger.
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Well now, the second day of racing has concluded and Ben Ainslie showed up, but lost both his races. Franck Cammas of France won a race against the favored Swedish boat. In the end, Oracle suffered their first loss, New Zealand came up against Japan and their former, fired, helmsman, Dean Barker, who got off to a good start. He lost though. And the boat that gets eliminated is...looks like either France or Japan. There is only a short day of racing left, tomorrow, and if Franck can win over Dean Barker, then he may stay in the competition. If he wins both his races, against Barker and Ainslie, he will certainly move forward into the next series. Then Japan will be the eliminated boat. It is likely Franck will lose to Japan, just on boat speed and maneuverability, and no matter what else happens, that will leave them tied with the tie breaker going to Japan. There have been unexpected results in many of the races, so anything could happen.
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Good thing I didn't post that last idea that the round robin was over. It is over, but there is a second round robin, so the results of today's racing, the third day, are not the final tally. We will begin a second round robin and that will determine who goes home. France one its race against BAR today, but lost against Japan. The other race, the race that did not include France was between Sweden and New Zealand and it was a corker. There was little to choose from over the course of the race, both boats had their moments, but the shining moment for Artemis, the Swedish boat, was at the last bottom mark where they zoomed past the Kiwi's and seemed to be headed home the victors. Then a late penalty was laid on them and they had to give up the victory. Apparently they fouled the Kiwis somehow at the last mark rounding.
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I was watching that race on NBCSports Net, when the penalty was announced and the cries of "No, no, impossible" rang out on the Swedish boat. Then the feed went dead and when I had it back up again they were onto the last race, the one between France and Japan, which was won by Dean Barker and his Japanese boat. At the start he feinted dropping down to hook the French boat, who then prepared for that assault, but then Barker did a "time and distance' drive to the windward end of the starting line, to the right. He reasoned, correctly, that France wouldn't be able to come up toward him with any speed, plus they would have to overlap him to drive him up past the mark at the end of the line. As a result he maintained a full head of steam and crossed the line about 10 knots of speed faster than the French. They never came back to threaten him and maybe they were not as fresh, after their win over the English. The Japanese only had that one race to prepare for.
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So now the tally is three boats at the bottom all tied at two wins, France, Japan, and Sweden. Up the ladder from there the glaring issue is the English boat, Ben Ainslie Racing, which has three points, but only one win, and three losses. Two of their points were carried over from the America's Cup World Series. It looks like they are the team in trouble now, with a 1 and 3 race record, unless they can improve, they will quickly squander those two extra points and be the boat that goes home.
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The photo is from the America's Cup website showing the Swedish boat leading New Zealand, only to get a heartbreaking penalty at the very end of the race.