We had to get fuel for our passage in Ft. Pierce since the pump at Vero Beach City Marina was in disrepair. Many vessels wanted to get underway and couldn't get replenished which is frustrating to the boaters but equally hard for the marina who has been unable to get the city out to fix the problem. We gave 5 gallons of diesel to a fellow cruiser who needed to get going. He sounded a little desperate when he asked if we had any to spare.

It is now Tuesday at 0740 and we are on our way. I've given an excerpt of Chris Parker's forecast from last night. This morning the situation has worsened and the Lo we're watching looks like it could cause issues a day earlier than what was predicted in yesterday's forecast. We should be ok and in port by the time that happens but if not (either we're too slow or the weather changes sooner than predicted), we'll divert into another harbor along the way. There are plenty of options. Don't forget you can track our progress with the Spot tracker under our Favorites section of the blog. Here's some of what Chris talked about last night.

"THU26 AFTERNOON-FRI27: Weak TROF trailing from CanadianMaritimes LO shifts S&E to along 37N/60W-Chesapeake, allowing hint of a HI to establish across NE US-NScotia...resulting in a weak RIDGE/TROF/RIDGE/TROF pattern...with the NE US-NScotia RIDGE / TROF 37N / RIDGE 35N / high-amplitude TROF lifting N from waters near & E of Bahamas. Result is light wind N of 38N / SW-W@7-17 from 37N-39N / light wind 34N-37N / increasing ENE-ESE wind & squalls S of 34N.

OUTLOOK:
We need to monitor high-amplitude TROF near & E of Bahamas for possible Tropical LO formation. GFS consistently develops Tropical LO by Dawn Fri27 near 30N/75W...CGEM Fri27 morning 25N/73W...FIM9 Fri27 morning 27N/75W. However...EURO, NAVGEM, UKMet show only a high-amplitude TROF.

TRACK: Hi-res EURO and variants suggest Apex of TROF (the area where a Tropical LO could form) may shift NW rapidly from waters E of Bahamas thru Thu26 to waters along N half of FL Sat28, then turn NE along SE US Coast Sun29-Mon30...then emerge from Chesapeake and develop into a LO (possibly non-Tropical) E of midAtlanticStates Mon30 night-Tue31.

Most models generally support the EURO solution but of course there are significant differences in track/strength of the feature. In particular, FIM9 (which does develop a Tropical LO) agrees with EURO track as far as landfall at FL/GA border Sun29 night - then dissipates LO inland.

MY OPINION: I would like to see buy-in from one of the EURO/NAVGEM/UKMet trio before increasing my assessment of 10% chance Tropical LO forms thru Mon30, somewhere near Bahamas/FL/SE US or offshore waters. All interests from Bahamas-FL E Coast-SE US and offshore waters should monitor situation closely, and be prepared in case Tropical LO moves from waters near or within 180mi E of C/N Bahamas Thu26-Fri27...to C-NFL/SE US Coast Sat28-Sun29.

Vessels offshore between Bahamas & SE US Coast/FL should complete travel no later than Thu26 near Bahamas/FL and no later than Fri27 SE US, or have a plan to deal with any developing Tropical LO.

Meanwhile...most models hint at a 2nd vorticity moving N from Caribbean thru Hispanola/Cuba and continuing to lift N thru W Atlanitc or Bahamas or FL or E GOMEX early in the week of Mon30...so even if the above feature fails to develop into Tropical LO, there's another potential Tropical LO in the same very-general area a few days later.

FORECAST, for vessels moving N/NE along Coast:
GA: benign motoring thru Wed25, then building E