As we ready ourselves and Leu Cat for departure tomorrow, a new, double threat in the weather formed. There is now the potential for two new hurricanes to form from tropical waves moving from the coast of Africa. This is in addition to tropical storm Fiona, which is well to the north of us and offers no threat to us here in the Lessor Antilles.

The first of the new tropical disturbances is following a track that is heading toward the southern and central islands of the Lessor Antilles. Thus, at this moment, heading south to Trinidad does not look to offer much security. Instead, heading north up to the Leeward Island group (those islands of the Lessor Antilles which are north of Martinique) appears to be the better choice to move out of the predicted path of this potential nasty weather.

The problem with that strategy is that the second tropical disturbance, which has not even moved offshore of Africa yet, is predicted to move in a more WNW trajectory than the first one. Thus, by sailing north, we head closer to its potential path. The photo attached to this blog graphically shows the predicament this unusual weather phenomenon presents to us.

Fortunately, the second disturbance which has not even formed yet is projected to be move to the north and may even move to the north of the Leeward Islands and is predicted to be slow moving. Now, all of this may change as each disturbance ages and moves west. What this means is that we need to monitor these very closely and be prepared to cut north or south, or possibly juke in both directions to dance around these weather patterns.

Our initial thoughts are to go ahead and leave for Martinique tomorrow and quickly get up to Dominica which is the next island to the north of Martinique. This has the dual advantage of moving to the northern most edge of the potential path of this disturbance as well as progress us closer to St. Martin. Even if the disturbance does mature into a tropical storm or hurricane and its trajectory does drift northward, we will still be in a position to sail south to Trinidad within two days as it will only be 300 nm to the south of us. If its trajectory stays as now shown, and if we wanted to move even further north, we would only be a 24 hour sail from St. Martin ( 170 nm).

Being in Dominica also gives us a good spot to be to watch the development of the second disturbance. We would be on the southern side of that disturbances potential path and we would well position for an easy sail to the south to either return to Martinique or St. Lucia or even one of the more southern islands such as St. Vincent, one of the Grenadines or Grenada.

Thus, it is looking like we will be leaving Rodney Bay and St. Lucia for Martinique tomorrow. Here is the latest NOAA description of the two disturbances that have so much of our attention.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical storm Fiona, located over the central tropical Atlantic.

1. A tropical wave located about 350 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an elongated area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves westward at about 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

2. A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the coast of Africa on Saturday. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent