The expected low and its affiliated blow and rains arrived on schedule. We awoke this morning to winds blowing and rain pounding on our hatch that is over our bed. It was the first real rain that we have had in a long time. We are nearing the end of the dry season in this part of the world and rain has been scarce. It was good to get the salt that has been accumulating on Leu Cat washed off.

The winds were pretty constant throughout the day. Fortunately, as expected from the more recent GRIB files, the previous low which is SE of the southern point of Madagascar, has sucked a lot of the potential energy away from this low. Thus, the low that is over us today is not nearly as intense as it was once predicted. Only once today did we see winds above 30 knots and that was a mere gust. Most of the time, the winds have been in the 20 to 25 knot range.

Our new anchorage position is much better than the previous two locations. We are out of the main river tidal current and face the wind and the small swells that it generates. This results in a very comfortable situation since the swells hit us bow on.

It looks like this low will move across the Mozambique Channel this evening but it is predicted to stall just south of the southern tip of Madagascar. The current GRIB forecast shows that it will sit there until it fades away sometime during the 21st. While it sits there, we will have winds coming up from the south that will keep us penned up here. Sometime during the 21st the wind may start to move to the east and when that happens, we will leave and head down to South Africa.

I am now playing with the idea of sailing right past Richards Bay and heading directly to Durban. Durban is just another 85 or so miles south of Richards Bay and is the major seaport of South Africa. We can clear in there just as easily as we can at Richards Bay. The advantage of doing this is that once we are in Richards Bay, we are stuck there for a number of days since clearing in may take a couple of days depending on how busy the officials are. During that time, we have heard that the coal dust which makes this port famous will coat your boat and lines. Plus, we would then have to sit there until then next weather window arrives, which could take another week or so.

If we push on to Durbin to clear in, we could save that time and when the next weather window arrives, we could then push on to either Port Elizabeth or Port London. The run from Durbin to Port Elizabeth is supposed to be the most dangerous run since it is 255 nm without any safe anchorages in between. Thus, you start your passage only after a SW wind starts to fade and the barometer peaks out and starts to fall. "Busters", which are unpredictable high wind storms, are least likely then. We have read a number of sail blogs which tell stories of boats having to spend a number of weeks sitting in Durban waiting for the right weather window. I am thinking that if we are to sit in a port, waiting for a weather window, I would much rather be sitting in Durban than Richards Bay. You typically do not sail directly from Richards Bay to Port Elizabeth since that run is a bit long and the weather may not hold up that long. Plus, we avoid all of that coal dust. We shall see�...