SV Panta Rhei Retirement Trip

We are anchored at Minerva, as reported, but many of our friends were already past Minerva and continued on. Others are trying to make it to Minerva. Both are having difficulty. We learn of this difficulty through the ssb net on 8131 kHz at 1830 UTC.

Those who are past Minerva are reporting up to 4 meter seas and 30 knot noserly winds, very rough conditions. Those coming to Minerva have 20 knot noserly winds and 3 meter seas. This is beyond what you can really motor into (considering that fuel matters) so all are sailing...tacking endlessly and making very slow progress. This is particularly true for the catamarans. To give you some idea of the stress on the crew, SV Blue Rodeo is considering making an entrance through the reef at night. We do have good waypoints which makes this the equivalent of an instrument approach but it is not a trivial undertaking in rough seas and the risk if something isn't quite perfect is cataclysmic. Remember the dance I told you that people do before entering? This skips the dance and places all the chips on the roulette table onto a double zero. Now you might be thinking, "What's the big deal. It's not a gale. Not a storm. Not a hurricane." True. This only underscores why those events are so unthinkably terrible. It really doesn't touch on understanding the difficulty that simply making the passage involves. In particular these waves are very "peaky"...so how does that fit into the comparison?

We are anchored and experiencing those same 20 knot winds with bouncy wind waves. This is not like being at the dock. It is wayyyy better than outside though. These conditions are attributable to a frontal passage. They will ease to light winds this evening. And stay light for several days. For those boats at sea, their passage speed will drop to nil. Remember that they are racing a low near Opua that will make conditions lots worse than last night. With no wind, they lose the race. Some will motor and they will face fuel exhaustion just as the weather gets really bad and they have the risks of being near land.

Do remember that the scale on which this game is played is huge. Boats near Minerva still have 800 miles to go to Opua or 260 nm to go back to Nukulofa. Remember, that is all water! Basically the pain lasts forever (at least a week, maybe two) for the crew. And every day the game changes. The weather systems move faster or slower and in different directions than were expected. The course plans, which were convoluted, become corrupted by actual conditions and a replan becomes a daily activity. This is unsettling if you crave security!

This morning on Gulf Harbor Radio (8752 kHz 0730 UTC) they say some models are showing 40 knots of wind for Minerva off the low that will pass nearby on Nov 7. (Now they tell me!!!) What to do? Do we stay at anchor and maybe be overwhelmed or do we head to sea and beat feet south? Trying to outrun weather in a sailboat is problematic. Bob McDavitt said our first opportunity to leave would be Nov 5.

Did I say this was a difficult passage?