SV Panta Rhei Retirement Trip

Vessel Name: Panta Rhei
Vessel Make/Model: Able Apogee 50
Hailing Port: Seattle
Crew: Larry and Karen
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18 September 2017 | Seattle
23 August 2017 | Prince Rupert
15 August 2017 | Anan Bear Observatory
19 July 2017 | Petersburg, AK
17 June 2017 | Hoonah, AK
03 June 2017 | Seward AK
03 June 2017 | Denali
25 April 2017 | Seward AK
23 March 2017 | Seward, AK
11 March 2017 | Seward, AK
23 January 2017 | Seward AK
06 December 2016 | Seward AK
12 November 2016 | Seward Alaska
14 October 2016 | Valdez, AK
21 September 2016
05 August 2016 | Seward, AK
26 July 2016 | Whittier, AK
19 July 2016 | Valdez, Alaska
05 July 2016 | Seward, Alaska
Recent Blog Posts
18 September 2017 | Seattle

We are back in Seattle

It feels like home. Of course we are not in Silshole. Maybe we will be, someday, but there is a list and we are on it. In the meantime we are at Bainbridge Island Marina.

23 August 2017 | Prince Rupert

The dinghy holds air again

It wasn't very nice of the bear to tear the fabric across a seam. We were worried that we couldn't patch it but tried anyway. The glue had a job to do and it did it!

15 August 2017 | Anan Bear Observatory

A Grizzly Bear damaged our dinghy

We were visiting the Anan Bear Observatory south of Wrangell. It is one of the best places to visit in all of SE Alaska BECAUSE it has bears. But (as we learned) there is a dark side to this bear concentration. And of course, there is a story to tell.

19 July 2017 | Petersburg, AK

Moving On

"No matter where you go, there you are" (unknown reference). By now we have been there and done that. Most recently that included Cannery Cove on Admiralty Island. The photo shows the quiet grandeur of the setting with Ron and Suzie's boat SV Tango in the foreground. It has been like that for the last [...]

17 June 2017 | Hoonah, AK

We are in Hoonah, SE Alaska now

We got something resembling a high pressure ridge so we moved expeditously across the Gulf of Alaska. The crossing took three days and weather stayed as forecast. That was a very good thing. The weather changes in the far north far more rapidly and dramatically than we ever experienced in the more southern [...]

03 June 2017 | Seward AK

Crossing the Gulf of Alaska

We are still in Seward, AK. Now that spring has come, why not start south?

What does AND mean in wx forecasting?

20 November 2012 | at the dock in Opua New Zealand
Larry Nelson
We've finished the week long festivities for the arriving yachts. Bob McDavitt was there. Bob was our weather guru for planning our trip to Opua. Bob gave a talk to help us understand forecasting. What he said was important for every sailor.

Having just completed a difficult weather passage, the audience was sitting on the edge of their chairs. We learned the meaning of the word "and" in a weather forecast. Weather forecasters talk about synoptic situations such as, "There is a high over New Zealand which will give low winds and sun..." If he stops there, you can have confidence in the forecast being substantially correct and something you should base a passage plan on. But if he continues, ..."and, there is a low forming in the Tasman Sea"... then you know that the timing and depth of ANOTHER weather event can/will substantially change the forecast. If he says AND again...as in ...,"and there is a front forming off that low that will pass over NZ on tuesday..." there is even more uncertainty since the rate of movement of the front and the intensity of the front may vary from forecast. The forecast continues..."AND there is a low forming north of Fiji that could become the first named storm of the season..." The uncertainty increases with every AND since every event is estimated and its cumulative affect with the other events has cumulative uncertainty. If anything in the forecast changes, then the forecast changes substantially. AND, there are lots of items affecting the weather. Of course all NZ forecasts contain lots of ANDs. In contrast, Seattle has what I would call "simple weather"...few ANDs.

Tomorrow we are hauling out. We'll have the bottom paint redone and we will have the swim step ladder mount redone and we'll have the rudder fixed. We expect to be out of the water about a week, but note that there are several "ands" in this forecast!

We're loving being here. It's expensive, ... more expensive than the US... but things you spend money on are very well done. There is value behind the expense and that is something the third world lacks.

The picture is taken by SV Serendipity during the recent total eclipse of the sun. Their passage south included a route designed to give them this viewing opportunity. pretty cool. In Opua the eclipse was partial,...which is a substantially less noticeable event.
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