They have no real clue.
17 July 2012 | Navadra Island
Bill
Yesterday, when we came into the anchorage, we dropped anchor a good ways from the other two boats in the cove. The wind was from the North North East blowing about 8 knots(maybe). We set our anchor(read the last post)appropriately and set in the relax a bit. Two hours later, the wind shifted to come out of the South. Again, about 8 knots. About that time, another boat entered the anchorage and dropped and set their anchor with the prevailing winds from the South. By the time the sun began to set, it had shifted to the South East and increase to about 10 knots. After sunset and darkness descended on the anchorage(almost a New Moon), it shifted again to come out of the East. Only now, it increase to about 18 to 20 knots with gust a bit higher. This shifted our anchor so that it started coming in contact with a coral bommie that had been about 20 yards West of where we had dropped our anchor. All would be quiet and then the sound of the chain as it road over the coral. A hard to describe sound. The light grating and rasping of metal that reverberates through the hull as it transfers the sound up the chain becomes a bit unnerving after a while and certainly after the Sun goes down. Toss in the 20 knot wind and it was a bit troublesome night. As of this morning, the wind is back from the North North East all over again. At 0230, the drag alarm on the chart plotter went off. I jumped out of bed and rushed to the steps to the cockpit only to find us in just about the same spot we had been in. No problem. At 0333, off goes the alarm again. Again, out of bed and up the stairs. Again, we were right where we were supposed to be. So this time, I reset the alarm(turned it off and on) and went back to bed. That was it as far as the alarm goes for the night. As the Sun come up in the morning(over cast again) we were still where we were supposed to be. The forecast we had for yesterday was for clear skies and winds less that 8 knots. The forecasters that put out the information are guessing from what we have found. Look at the local weather GRIB files and then throw a dart at a special dart board and here comes your forecast. We've had the same thing happen to friends a couple of weeks ago that showed for lovely weather and light winds. They got hit by overcast skies and winds into the high 20 to 30 knot range. I guess it comes down to just taking a look around and making the decision--Go or don't go. With luck, I'll catch up on some nap time today to make up for what I lost last night. But, with all that being said, it's nice to be back out at the islands again and away from "civilization".