Pinch n punch first of the month! It is now officially the cyclone season for the Southern Hemisphere and the first TC to form is Dahlia situated off the coast of NW Australia - so for us to head offshore for 10 to 12 days travelling at 6 knots with no prospect of a cyclone shelter is a risk we are unwilling to take at this time of the year.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM ) advises that the western South Pacific will get four cyclones this season - about average. There is also a 'La Niña watch' although models suggest if we move into a La Niña pattern it will be weak and short lived. A strong La Niña typically tends to bring the cyclone season forward by about three weeks.

We have also checked the past 20 years of cyclone tracking history and the records suggest only one cyclone in November which is good odds. That was TC Nute (1998) which trapped us in the mangroves of Port Clinton in Queensland for a week. So even when the odds are good you can still get caught out!

So yes, it is getting a bit late in the season to be heading north off shore and thus the reason we have missed the 2017 pre cyclone window. (Image former TC Debbie)