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Who: Kimball Corson. Text and Photos not disclaimed or that are obviously not mine are copyright (c) Kimball Corson 2004-2016
Port: Lake Pleasant, AZ
09 April 2018 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
10 March 2018 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
10 March 2018 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
22 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
22 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
22 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
22 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
22 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
22 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
22 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
22 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
09 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa

NOAA's Local Forecast for Pago Pago Was Hugely Wrong

22 January 2013 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
Kimball Corson
NOAA's Local Forecast for Pago Pago Was Hugely Wrong

NOAA provided a local weather forecast for Pago Pago, American Samoa, predicting the effects of adjacently passing Cyclone Garry, to be 55 to 70 mph winds for Monday night (21st) and for Tuesday morning (22nd). The Port Captain believed it, ordered vessels over 200 tons to leave the harbor before midnight , closed the harbor and told smaller craft not to leave port. . The Coast Guard believed it and took their precautions. Many cruisers here believed it and we all prepared accordingly. The forecast was very terribly wrong.

In fact, here is what happened in Pago Pago, according to NOAA's own web site on the last three days of weather history in Pago Pago: highest sustained wind for that period is 21 mph. Highest gust is 23 mph. These figures are from NOAA's own weather history. Not exactly the 55 to 70 mph NOAA forecast for Monday night and Tuesday morning.

I have never seen a forecast so poorly done and badly off. NOAA's forecast also disagreed consistently and at all times with those of the US Navy, Windguru, Passage Weather, US Grib, zyGrib, Intellicast, Weather Channel, Weather Underground, Accuweather and others which called for maximum wind gusts of 26 knots or 30 mph.

It is hard to get more wrong than that.
Comments
Vessel Name: Altaira
Vessel Make/Model: A Fair Weather Mariner 39 is a fast (PHRF 132), heavily ballasted (43%), high-aspect (6:1), stiff, comfortable, offshore performance cruiser by Bob Perry that goes to wind well (30 deg w/ good headway) and is also good up and down the Beaufort scale.
Hailing Port: Lake Pleasant, AZ
Crew: Kimball Corson. Text and Photos not disclaimed or that are obviously not mine are copyright (c) Kimball Corson 2004-2016
About:
Kimball Corson: I am a 75 year old solo sailor, by choice. However, I did take on a personable, but high maintenance female kitten, now a full grown cat, named KiKiPoo when she is sweet, or KatKatPo after she has just killed something like a bird or bat. [...]
Extra:
Although I was a lawyer and practiced law with good success for thirty years, creating significant new law, I never really believed in the law, the politics of law or in the over reaching self-interest of most lawyers I met. Too much exposure to Nietzsche and other good and seriously thoughtful [...]
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Profile

Who: Kimball Corson. Text and Photos not disclaimed or that are obviously not mine are copyright (c) Kimball Corson 2004-2016
Port: Lake Pleasant, AZ