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Who: Kimball Corson. Text and Photos not disclaimed or that are obviously not mine are copyright (c) Kimball Corson 2004-2016
Port: Lake Pleasant, AZ
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Are Stocks, Bonds and Housing Overvalued?

22 December 2016 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
Kimball Corson
Shiller's view. There are many who think the market is overvalued including Shiller at Yale who argues this is the first time, unlike 1929, when stocks, bonds and housing are all overvalued at the same time.

His best guess is the boom in stocks will continue for a bit but a major correction is coming thereafter, if not a crash, a view shared by many.

There is a basis to being bearish currently. A three way mega crash is a possibility, as Shiller implies but dares not say.

Shiller correctly predicted the housing crash and the ensuing recession in 2007-8 when others said "impossible" and he won the Nobel Prize in economics for data methods and analysis techniques.

The truth is trillions have been poured into the economy by the Fed in recent years and much of that has been hoarded in passive investments in the secondary financial markets and in housing. Not much of it has been spent on more consumption or much more real investment.

The amount of cash in the hands of households, banks and corporations is at an all-time historic high, some $18 trillion in all, as anxious, uncertain citizens, bank execs and corporate treasurers hoard their cash until the future course of Fed policy and the direction of the U.S. economy become clearer. Balance sheets have been repaired and the cash being hoarded just might be the fuel for modest growth accelerating.

Much of the hoarding is by the rich and wealthy. As their incomes grow disproportionately, they hoard disproportionately more of national income so less is spent on consumption and real investment.

“It’s a real problem,” Michael Linden, the Center for American Progress’ managing director for economic policy, said of the wealthy’s propensity to save and not spend, “to the extent that more and more income is going to people at the top and more of that income is not going to places that are productive.”

Over the last few decades, the incomes of the top 1 percent of earners grew by about 275 percent,

The paradox of thrift is killing us.
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Vessel Name: Altaira
Vessel Make/Model: A Fair Weather Mariner 39 is a fast (PHRF 132), heavily ballasted (43%), high-aspect (6:1), stiff, comfortable, offshore performance cruiser by Bob Perry that goes to wind well (30 deg w/ good headway) and is also good up and down the Beaufort scale.
Hailing Port: Lake Pleasant, AZ
Crew: Kimball Corson. Text and Photos not disclaimed or that are obviously not mine are copyright (c) Kimball Corson 2004-2016
About:
Kimball Corson: I am a 75 year old solo sailor, by choice. However, I did take on a personable, but high maintenance female kitten, now a full grown cat, named KiKiPoo when she is sweet, or KatKatPo after she has just killed something like a bird or bat. [...]
Extra:
Although I was a lawyer and practiced law with good success for thirty years, creating significant new law, I never really believed in the law, the politics of law or in the over reaching self-interest of most lawyers I met. Too much exposure to Nietzsche and other good and seriously thoughtful [...]
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Who: Kimball Corson. Text and Photos not disclaimed or that are obviously not mine are copyright (c) Kimball Corson 2004-2016
Port: Lake Pleasant, AZ