Profile

Who: Kimball Corson. Text and Photos not disclaimed or that are obviously not mine are copyright (c) Kimball Corson 2004-2016
Port: Lake Pleasant, AZ
09 April 2018 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
10 March 2018 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
10 March 2018 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
22 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
22 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
22 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
22 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
22 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
22 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
22 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
22 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
09 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa

A Crisis of Demand

23 November 2015 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
Kimball Corson
The commodity price collapse we have been witnessing worldwide is now crawling into our own heartland USA. It is a consequence of failed derived demand. Without sufficient demand for final consumer, investment and manufactured goods, the derived demand for commodities to made them is likewise collapsing. Much of the problem worldwide is due to growing income inequality which takes money out of the hands of those who would spend it and places that money in far fewer hands that don't, but who hoard it in cash, near cash or secondary financial markets instead. Much is also moved or held offshore. The demand for consumer, investment and manufactured goods falls and so does the derived demand for the commodities to make them. We are now coming full circle and the effect is likely to be like a sledge hammer and not just in the US. We are watching it as if in slow motion.

Developing countries based on emerging markets of raw materials and supplies -- that is, mainly commodities -- are and will be especially hard hit. They will import few consumer, investment and manufactured goods. Many will experience and some already are experiencing recession.The line at the IMF for help is long and anxious. Private debt is over extended in many of these countries. Banks are being propped up. China's problems begin to pale beside those of these nations, Russia, Japan and Brazil. Exports of manufactured goods are also dropping and pushing Japan and Germany into recession. Consumer goods alone cannot hold the world economy up for long. Commodity demand and demand for manufactured and investment goods is also needed but not in sight.

The question ever and always is how far will things go. While it still has myriad problems, China is by no means the world's only economic concern. Nations are piling up on economic watch lists at an alarming rate. Too much at the periphery can't fail and still have the center still hold together. We are beginning to sense that in America, but our view is clouding by our booming stock market, strong consumer spending and busy construction industry. If those falter, watch out.
Comments
Vessel Name: Altaira
Vessel Make/Model: A Fair Weather Mariner 39 is a fast (PHRF 132), heavily ballasted (43%), high-aspect (6:1), stiff, comfortable, offshore performance cruiser by Bob Perry that goes to wind well (30 deg w/ good headway) and is also good up and down the Beaufort scale.
Hailing Port: Lake Pleasant, AZ
Crew: Kimball Corson. Text and Photos not disclaimed or that are obviously not mine are copyright (c) Kimball Corson 2004-2016
About:
Kimball Corson: I am a 75 year old solo sailor, by choice. However, I did take on a personable, but high maintenance female kitten, now a full grown cat, named KiKiPoo when she is sweet, or KatKatPo after she has just killed something like a bird or bat. [...]
Extra:
Although I was a lawyer and practiced law with good success for thirty years, creating significant new law, I never really believed in the law, the politics of law or in the over reaching self-interest of most lawyers I met. Too much exposure to Nietzsche and other good and seriously thoughtful [...]
Altaira's Photos - Main
No items in this gallery.

Profile

Who: Kimball Corson. Text and Photos not disclaimed or that are obviously not mine are copyright (c) Kimball Corson 2004-2016
Port: Lake Pleasant, AZ