The Dangerous Middle
08 July 2012
Mike
Much discussion takes place between cruisers on which route to take from Bora Bora to Tonga/Fiji because of its reputation for being the 'dangerous middle'. It is not uncommon to experience continuous winds of over 35 knots for this c1300 nm passage or worse still squalls that bring sudden and violent opposite wind changes. Unfortunately the wind is only one issue and whether you decide to take the northern route and make a halfway stop at Suwarrow or the middle route with its stopover at Palmerston or the more braver southern route of Raratonga (braver because winds tend to be stronger the further south one goes) these tiny Cook Island atolls which have little protection from westerly's have caused havoc for cruisers in the past. In fact only last month we heard that a boat, which we got to know during the ARC crossing last year, got caught in a storm while on anchor in Suwarrow and ran aground. Hugh and I made the decision months ago to take the middle route and go via Palmerston and Niue. Weather permitting we plan to stay a few days at each stop and pick up Hugh's sister and nephew in Niue on the 13th.
While in Bora Bora we checked the weather daily and four days out from our departure 25kts was forecast, which really means over 30kts when out in the middle of the seas; it's going to be a rough passage! Three days out we were somewhat relieved to see it was reduced to 20kts making for a nice and quick passage. Two days out we were disheartened to see it reduced again to 15kts. One day out we decided we shouldn't look at the weather forecast anymore as we estimated that we would only have good winds for the first couple of days then they would die out; luckily or unluckily it looks like we would be robbed of experiencing the dangerous middle at least for this 1st leg from Bora-Bora to Palmerston.
As I write this we're only 12nm's away from Palmerston or 650nm's into our 1300nm's passage. The weather forecast for the past six days was bang on. We had a squally 20 knot first night but since then the wind has only averaged 12kts, eventually dying out yesterday for 6 hours but thankfully coming back again. Overall it has been a nice passage with calm seas and we've managed to average over 5kts speed. We're looking forward to stopping in Palmerston as only 50 boats get the pleasure to do so every year and the tiny place has a unique history with all the islanders descendants of a William Marsters from England who arrived on the island in 1826 with his 3 wives.