CURRENT LOCATION: Tied to a mooring ball near Cayo Pirata, in Ensenada Honda, Culebra, Puerto Rico

18 18.400' N, 065 17.842' W

Earlier this week, a yellow circle appeared on the Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Yesterday, it turned from yellow to orange. This is not good news. As you can see from the snapshot above, the color key indicates that a shift from yellow to orange suggests an increased probability of tropical cyclone formation.

In some weather discussions, you will see each of these pre-cyclone areas referred to as an 'invest.' What we are looking at here is Invest 92L. (Note: The nomenclature is a little odd. As I understand it, they start numbering invests at 90, 91, 92... on through 99, then start back at 90 again. The letter 'L' indicates that the invest is in the Atlantic.)

Although this system is nearly 3,000 miles from our current location, it is still a good idea to keep tabs on it. For me, it is never too early to begin worrying when I read words like...

"ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS"

However, alarm bells are not yet sounding, as the models for this invest are showing a likely tract to the north:



We've got our fingers crossed, here aboard Prudence, and will be watching Mr. 92L very closely.