CURRENT LOCATION: Anchored in Ensenada Honda
18 18.318' N, 065 18.008' W

Well, today things are looking a bit better. Tropical storm BERTHA has pretty much maintained her same intensity and direction, but the NOAA predicted path has shifted a little to the north (and further away from us) compared to previous predictions. This leaves us breathing a little bit easier.

Of course, the NOAA prediction is based upon several different tropical cyclone models (as well as other data). As you can see in the image below, there is substantial disparity in what these models suggest. For the record, we like the LBAR model and are not too keen on the UKMET at this point and time.



Anyway, based on the current data, we have decided not to go hide in the mangrove swamp at this point. We did, however, think that it might be prudent to depart our position on the mooring ball. Two lines of reasoning precipitated this decision. First, we have no clue as to the structural integrity of the mooring. From what we can see it looks fine when we dive on it, but much of the line is covered with growth making its condition hard to evaluate. And, although it has held us well for up to 35-knot gusts, we have no idea what lies beneath the mud on the bottom and how much that attachment can withstand. Second, a neighboring sailboat (belonging to a weekend boater) has been choking up on one of the two anchors he has set out. When winds shift to the west, the bow of his boat draws far too close to the stern of our boat. In fact, there have been times where I could have stepped from one vessel to another.

So, where to move the boat? We used a neat little trick I read about this morning around 3AM (I had a little trouble sleeping) to aid us in that decision. If you take a protractor, mark an angle of 115 degrees and lie it on the chart pointing in the anticipated direction of the storm, the 115-degree mark will point in the direction of the winds. You can see an example below, with red, orange, yellow, green, blue, and violet showing the movement of a storm coming from the west and passing north of Culebra.



This suggested to Sheryl and I that our best positioning within Ensenada Honda would be somewhere with less room for fetch to develop in the event of strong winds from the North through Southwest directions. Therefore, we fired up our engine and made the grand move of a little over 1000-feet to the western side of the harbor.



We took our time making this big move, in an effort to warm up our engine a little bit. We haven't started the diesel in nearly 7 weeks and the time was about right for an oil change. We took an extra long time backing down on the anchor and once the engine reached operational temperatures I was ready to drain and replace the oil. Hopefully, this will keep all of our internal engine parts happy, as they quietly bathe in clean oil through the upcoming hurricane months.

Comfortably settled into our new spot, we will continue to evaluate the development of Bertha and make decisions regarding further hurricane preparations. This may include but is certainly not limited to: deployment of additional anchors, application of chafe gear, and the removal of canvas, sails, and solar panels. Hopefully, Bertha will abide by the more northerly of the projected paths and none of these actions will be necessary. Please cross your fingers in that regard, faithful readers.