CURRENT LOCATION: Anchored in Ensenada Honda
18 18.318' N, 065 18.008' W

Early this morning, BERTHA was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane. Maximum sustained winds are reaching 65 knots and stretch out to 22 nautical miles from the center. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 100 nautical miles.

The good news is that the storm center has already reached a latitude (19.3N) which is north of our current position. And, with a continued west-northwesterly track, our chances of meeting Bertha directly have diminished considerably. Even better, the increase in storm strength is likely to give her the boost she needed to turn to the north (through that opening door in the high pressure system to the north I mentioned in a previous blog). Current NOAA predictions will keep Bertha at least 400 nautical miles away as she passes to our north.

Of course, not all models paint such an optimistic picture. The UKMET still gives us reason to keep the cork on the celebratory champagne until later this week.



The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first visit to Bertha on Tuesday afternoon. By then we should have a solid idea of where we stand relative to this, the first hurricane of 2008.