CURRENT LOCATION: Anchored in Ensenada Honda, near town on Culebra
18 18.326' N, 065 17.979' W

All eyes here aboard Prudence are on IKE. He remains a tropical storm, but it appears that could change to hurricane status at any time. Our main hope is that wind sheer (expected in increase in 2 days) will keep it from becoming a monster.

The good news is that IKE's current plan appears to be a quick step to the right followed by a step to the left, just to avoid our location. Is there a protective bubble situated over Culebra?



Well, not exactly. This track is dependent upon two weather features. First, the current northwestward track is driven by a subtropical ridge to the north of the storm. Considering the fact that the storm is already to the north of our latitude, we like this direction and wish that it would continue indefinitely.

Unfortunately, the turn to the left will be dictated by the forecast building of a mid-tropospheric ridge to the north and northwest of IKE in about 3 days. If this does occur, we just hope that it is late enough in the game to bring IKE to the west of Culebra. Far, far to the west.

As for the current weather conditions, it has been uncharacteristically cloudy for the last 24 hours, and rains were frequent overnight. These are still the effects of Tropical Storm HANNA, believe it or not. She actually crept south and essentially parked off the coast of Hispaniola (the island occupied by the countries of Haiti and the Dominican Republic). Now she shares with us her outer bands of precipitation.



If HANNA is any example of how the forecast tracks of these weather systems can be in a constant state of flux, we should be prepared for IKE to go just about anywhere. Let's all keep our fingers crossed, shall we?