CURRENT LOCATION: Anchored in Mosquito Cove, just outside the entrance to Jolly Harbour, Antigua
17 04.505' N, 061 53.541' W

The time has come for us to wave goodbye to Antigua and to the Caribbean. Our weather analysis suggests that now is as good a time as any to head northward. We've gathered data from a variety of sources, including our good friend NOAA, but this time we have found that the most concise presentation of forecasted wind and wave conditions to suit our needs was to be found at PassageWeather.com. Their weather images look something like this:



I downloaded the images into PowerPoint and added a red reference line to draw our eye to our intended path ...



... and then, considering that our position will be changing over time, I added yellow and clear alternating stripes to suggest our progress northward each day. The intersection of each stripe with the red line approximates our intended position ...



Finally, of course, not only will our position change, but the underlying weather forecast changes each day. Therefore, I animated each image in a slide show and can focus on the appropriate day's stripe - red line intersection based on the forecasted day labeled on the top of the image.

Animated Example

Well, you get the idea. Of course, we can only see (at best) a week out in the forecasts. Therefore, we are going with the hope that a front does not push through late in our voyage.

Why not wait a little longer? Well, that eventual threat of tropical cyclones may come early this year. According to one tropical storm forecaster...

There are five hurricane seasons that have characteristics most similar to what was observed during February and March of 2009. These seasons are 1951, 1968, 1976, 1985 and 2001. One very interesting aspect regarding four out of the five years is that there was significant tropical storm development in May and June. In fact, 1951 had a major hurricane in mid to late May off of the US southeast coast. So, I am going to go out on a limb and forecast that there will be tropical storm or hurricane development close to the US coast between May 15 and June 5.

So, even though it is a real long shot to forecast that kind of weather activity this far in advance, the mere notion of an increase in the possibility of encountering a tropical cyclone during our transit from Bermuda to the United States has lit a fire under us and hastened our departure slightly.

So, we are ready ... I think. All of our boat chores are done to the best of our abilities, and everything appears sound and secure. Even with that, though, there is a palpable sense of tension in the air. We are both a little scared.

Despite the miles we have accumulated beneath our keels over the past four years, we are still relatively novice offshore sailors. Although the regions have often been remote, land has never been more than 24 hours away. This time it will be different. Whatever fate and mother nature throws at us, we will have to handle it on our own. I suppose that we can take comfort in the fact that we will act with our customary prudence at all times and then simply hope for the best.

Note that this will be our final blog post for some time to come. Predicting a landfall date is challenging enough, but then throw in the availability of internet access and things get really questionable. Bottom line, please do not worry. Instead, wish us luck in your hearts and hold the e-mails until you see a new CURRENT LOCATION posted with a much higher number for the latitude.

Until then,
Doug & Sheryl