Route: Whangarei, NZ to near Lautoka, Fiji

Depart: approx. 0600utc Mon, May 17, 2010

ETA: May 27, 2010 or earlier


Weather Routing Summary:

1) 992MB low pressure continues to spiral, centered SW of Auckland near
39S/170E, again today

a) this low has remained near this position as the upper level weather
pattern above has a cut off from the usual W to E flow

b) the latest forecast model consensus keeps this low SW of Auckland into
Sunday, utc time, when it is expected to begin to weaken

c) allowing the present offshore NW to NNW 15-25kts winds to begin to back
some and ease by later on Sunday and into the beginning of this coming week

2) in addition to this strong low, satellite shows a tropical frontal
boundary currently stretching from near Brisbane, Aust to near S Tonga then
to the SSE and S to a low on the front near 41S/170W

a) clouds, squalls and some thunderstorms are sliding E and then SE to S
along this frontal boundary

3) conditions around Opua for your departure time should keep winds out of
the WNW to NW, in the continued clockwise flow around the low to the SW of
Auckland

a) then expecting these winds to eventually back out of the W around 00utc
on the 19th, as the low pressure slides to the E of NZ

4) forecast models agree that the â�'��"cut offâ�'� low should weaken as it is
expected to slowly slide to the SE during the 18th and 19th, utc time

a) with the upper and surface lows forecast to be near the Chatham Islands
by 00utc on the 19th

b) as this low moves SE, high pressure will expand across the Tasman Sea
from the SW to the NE

c) eventually edging between North Island, NZ and Fiji, during the 20th
and 21st, utc time

d) to shift your winds out of the SSE to SE, as you work your way toward
Fiji

5) as this high edges to the NE, it will push the tropical frontal boundary
to the E

a) moving the boundary from near Samoa off to the SE

6) longer range forecast shows the possibility of another low forming on a
cold front just E of North Island by later on the 21st, utc time

a) with this low then intensifying as it's complex center moves near
40S/170W by 00utc on the 22nd

b) expecting the center of the high near the SW corner of South Island, NZ
helping to build S-SW winds of 30-50kts between North Island and the low to the E, near 40S/170W

c) these stronger winds should help to build swell out of the S-SSE along
your route, so with the additional SE winds, expecting seas to increase to
8-10ft by 00utc on the 22nd

7) we will also be watching for any activity along the tropical frontal
boundary sitting just S of New Caledonia, Fiji and Tonga

a) forecast models are hinting at a weak low in this region during the
18th and 19th, that may travel E to ESE

b) we will continue to watch this region and will keep you updated if
there are important changes to your forecast



Routing:

1) routed you on a 25-30 degree true course at around 150 nm/day for the
first 1.5 days in NW winds

a) then recommend a rhumbline route toward Fiji as winds back out of the W
then finally start to build out of the SE

b) routed you closer to 170 nm/day as SE winds begin to build


Wind forecast

Wind directions are TRUE, wind speed in kts, and time is UTC



Mon, May 17

00: 280-300/14-20

06: 290-310/12-20 approx departure

12: 300-320/10-18

18: 310-330/15-22

Weather: Variably cloudy with scattered showers/squalls, some isolated
thunderstorms

Seas 6-8ft, NW swell



Tue, May 18

00: 320-340/18-26 nr 33 30S/175 30E

06: 300-320/15-22

12: 270-290/14-20 shift on a rhumbline route to Fiji

18: 260-280/12-18

Weather: Variably to partly cloudy with slight chc of a shower/squall

Seas 6-8ft early then easing to 5-7ft, NW-W swell



Wed, May 19

00: 260-280/10-18 nr 31S/176 30E

12: 200-220/8-12 to light and variable

Weather: Variably to partly cloudy with slight chc of a shower/squall

Seas possibly as low as 4-6ft in easing winds



Thu, May 20

00: bcmg 150-170/10-18 nr 28 40S/176 30E

12: 140-160/10-15

Weather: Variably to partly cloudy with slight chc of a shower/squall

Seas 4-6ft



Fri, May 21

00: 140-160/12-18 nr 26S/176 30E

12: 140-160/10-15

Weather: Becoming variably cloudy with a better chc of showers/squalls

Seas up to 6-8ft in increasing S swell



Sat, May 22

00: 150-170/15-23 nr 23 10S/176 40W

12: 140-160/18-25

Weather: Variably cloudy with scattered showers/squalls

Seas up to 8-10ft, S-SE swell and increasing SE windwave



Best regards,


--
Commanders' Weather Tel: 603-882-6789
Email: info@commandersweather.com



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