Ep 42 Sara
14 November 2024 | Ponce Inlet
Bill Bernaerts | Gusty Winds but sunny.

So just when you thought it was safe to go back on the water.....
"Sara, Sara, storms are brewing in your eye"
https://youtu.be/32ScTb6_KHg?si=j-0pFacNt4SPKX_Y
Over the past 2 days the meteorologists have been busy tracking what they predict will be another hurricane brewing in the south west Caribbean. It's number 19 on the hit this for 2024, has been named Sara and is historically very late in the season. So there we were 3 days ago watching for our potential crossing weather window, which looked good for Monday or Tuesday and then boom, the next day there's a tropical storm brewing!
We use several weather services in our weather assessments (Windy, Predict Wind, NOAA, Marc's and most recently the Bahamas Land and Sea Facebook page (thanks Bruce and Esther)) and try to get at least 2 to agree with each other. Most predict out 7 days but the accuracy is pretty low the further out you go. Tropical Depression 19 initially is predicted to head west and hopefully hit land in Central America over the next 2-3 days. If this happens, landfall takes a lot of the intensity out of the storm as the warm water actually feeds the storm creation. However there are several predictive models utilized and many predict the storm will intensify into a hurricane and then head north and back east, tracking over Florida.
Keeping an eye on this with our buddy boat we developed a plan in case the materializes as some predictions suggest. Choices include, A)stay where we are on anchor, B) head to a safe marina inland heading either north or south, C) find a more secure mooring ball, D)put the boat on the market reduced for sale and get outta Dodge, or E) ignore it all hope it goes away!
While I am sure a lot of boaters go the E route, we decided on B as our best option. At this early stage in the forecast if the storm makes landfall in Florida there are several paths it could follow. The good thing in this scenario is that the wind strength usually diminishes when the centre passes over land so being on the east coast if the storm tracks our way it should be at a reduced speed if it passes over us. Larry made some calls and found a suitable marina in Vero Beach, about 100 miles south of here, which is a true hurricane hole, meaning a harbour with 360 protection that is fairly far inland by ICW route meaning any storm surge will be throttled back a fair bit from the open ocean. I think we got on this in good time as there are lots of transient boats down here that will be looking for safe harbour in the next few days. Luckily we aren't in that group!
THe photo below shows several predictions as to the storm's path with the GFS model showing the arm going right over where we are headed. If you check other analysis sources there are lots of different predictions but even if we headed north, there is no telling if it will follow a path that way. There's no telling what track it will take right now so we be following this very closely over the coming days.
If I didn't know better I would think the Bahamas doesn't want us to visit! Stay tuned for blow by blow reporting!