With each passing day, the likelihood of us sailing across the North Atlantic diminishes. This is because of a number of reasons. First, the North Atlantic weather patterns continue to look marginal, at best, in supporting a “Go” decision. The atmosphere continues to look unstable with a number of storms predicted to roar across the route we would like to take. I have attached a picture of the weather patterns predicted for June 22th to show you what I mean.

Another reason is that the 2017 hurricane season is predicted by NOAA and others to be a bit more intense than normal. NOAA is predicting 11 to 17 named storms (winds 39 mph or higher) of which 5 to 9 of them could become hurricanes. An average year there are just 12 named storms and 5 hurricanes. While we just had three weeks of major storms sweeping across the North Atlantic, with one of them yielding winds of 60 mph, NOAA did not count these storms nor did it name them. I am not sure why this is the case but I guess it is because these storms were not tropical in origin. The tropics is defined as that part of the earth which falls between the Tropic of Cancer (a line located at 23°26′13.3″ north of the Equator and represents the northern extent of where the Sun can be directly overhead) and its southern equivalent, the Tropic of Capricorn. The Tropic of Cancer runs east and west and is located just north of Cuba. The storms that recently ran across the North Atlantic all originated in the Continental US, well above the Tropic of Cancer. Thus, and again I am guessing, they were not tropical in nature and may not have qualified to be named tropical storms.

The third reason deals with the lack of tropical storms and hurricanes so far, this year and the statistical fact that each day we delay our departure the odds of one or more forming during the three weeks it would take us to reach the Azores greatly increases.

If you look at the table I posted two days ago that listed the 2016 name storms and hurricanes, we had 3 in the early part of June and none in July. This year, with only 1 tropical storm through mid-June, there is an increase in odds of more storms and hurricanes in July. If we were to set sail for the Azores in late June, we would be exposed in the North Atlantic for about three weeks and would have an increased likelihood of running into a tropical storm or hurricane during that passage. With each passing day, we are getting more and more hesitant to take that increased risk on.