A Change in Plans and a Short Hike
20 September 2022
• Bora Bora
by Karl Coplan
They say that sailing plans are set in jello. Since leaving the Marquesas, we have had a pretty clear plan for September and October. Our goal was (and is) to get to New Zealand by early November. We planned to stop in Tonga on the way, since the Tongan government announced back in August that it would be reopening its borders in October. It is about 1200 miles from the Society Islands (where we are now) to Tonga, and another 1200 miles or so from Tonga to New Zealand.
One complication was that Robin needed to be at a harbor with good connectivity on September 29th and 30th for an AGU board meeting. A solution seemed to be stopping in Rarotonga in the Cook Islands, roughly halfway between the Society Islands and Tonga. So we made plans around leaving the Society Islands around the 21st, to allow time for the 600 mile run to Rarotonga, just on the fringe of the area of reliable tradewinds.
One potential wrinkle: the harbor in Rarotonga faces north, and is “untenable” in a northerly wind. Our friends on Sea Pearl are stuck there now, waiting for a replacement steering cable, and report that in less than fifteen knots of northerly wind, it was a roller coaster. The harbor master may even kick yachts out of the harbor when the wind blows from the north.
That did not seem to be a problem, since the prevailing wind is still easterly this time of year, and the northerlies at the edge of low pressure systems do not seem to last more than a day or two. What are the chances that a northerly would line up for the two days we needed to be in port?
Well, it’s now decision time, and the last eight runs or so of the GFS weather model, along with the Euro and the Canadian, all show a low pressure system bringing northerlies to the vicinity of Rarotonga around September 28. They all forecast light northerlies - ten knots or so - but ten days out you really can’t rely on the track or strength of a low. All I know is that all the models agree there will be a low out there at just the wrong time, and it’s probably not worth the risk of getting stuck out at sea in that time frame.
In addition to the random motion of atmospheric particles, the random motion of government policies has become unpredictable. Ten days before October, and the Tongan government has still made no announcement about whether and when it will open its borders to yachts. People on the FB Tonga Expats group say there is basically no way of knowing whether or when the borders will open to yachts. Since the stop in the Cook Islands was meant to maximize our time in Tonga, there is less reason to push on to Rarotonga right now.
If we can’t stop in Tonga, the passage to New Zealand gets to be more complicated. To get there, we leave the tropical tradewinds zone, and cross into the mid-latitudes where early Spring low pressure systems cause gales and storm force winds - it’s the hemispheric equivalent of sailing around Cape Hatteras in March. Tonga is the traditional safe harbor where sailors wait for their weather window. If Tonga remains closed, that leaves Fiji (adding 500 miles) or maybe New Caledonia (adding about 1000 miles). Or sailing direct from Cook Islands (a 1500 mile run) and hoping for a reliable long range forecast, or counting on the option of heading to the vicinity of Tonga and heaving-to offshore to wait for a better forecast if necessary.
So it looks like we are going to stay put here in Bora Bora, with a pretty good internet connection, until the end of the month. After that we will most likely sail for the Cook Islands, but it all depends on low pressure systems and Tongan COVID statistics.
Spent the morning poring over the latest weather forecasts, reading cruising guides, and discussing options. After lunch, we went ashore and took a very pleasant little hike up to the top of the ridge overlooking the bay we are moored in. It was not too strenuous — it’s about like climbing Hook Mountain in Nyack for a nice view of the Hudson, except that on one side you have the unbelievable blue glow of the reef and lagoon waters, and on the other the dizzying parapets of Bora Bora’s mountain core. The small summit was a nice place to sit a while and watch the train of tourist jet skis and kite boarders crossing the coral waters, the veil of rain pouring downwind from Tahaa Island to the East, and the waves crashing on the edge of the fringing reef.
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