In the morning, we will watch Groundhog Day, which is a wonderful comedy. Sort of a family tradition!

In the afternoon, I will have my first physical therapy appointment. I'm a little scared -- everyone talks about how painful that is!

Derek has been monitoring the weather and apparently we have a weather window coming up. [UPDATE: He agrees that it has "moved" and we will probably be going a few days later than he originally thought. This is due to the incoming front passing north of us instead of directly over us... ) Right now for a few days the wind has been from north, northeast, and east, up to 20 kts. Today it was moderate and we would have gone but for my PT appt. Friday is a bit blustery, Saturday the winds are supposed to moderate again (UPDATE: "Not any more!"), be east and then from SE over the weekend... light winds in line with the Gulf Stream are what we are waiting for. At the very least, not against the stream, and not heavy. (UPDATE: all that moves a few days downstream)

Weather prediction is more complicated when multiple sources do not agree. Weather Underground doesn't suggest any real moderation of the wind speed, having it still above 12 kts all weekend, although SE by Sunday, and much lighter Sunday evening. Here's a graphic from NOAA: http://innovation.srh.noaa.gov/swan/swanloop.php?sid=KEY

We're starting at 25N 81W, heading east and north a bit... The National Weather Service, as usual, shouts a lot:
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1030 PM EST WED FEB 01 2012

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE AREA
THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FAR NE
WATERS FRI AND EXTEND FROM 27N65W TO E-CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE FRI
THEN STALL AND WEAKEN FROM 25N65W TO E-CENTRAL FLORIDA SAT.

That is north of us.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN SUN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES JUST N OF THE FAR NW WATERS SUN NIGHT...SWEEPS E AND CLIPS THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA BY LATE MON.

The relevant portions for us being "stall and weaken" and that the cold front will be N of us and thus the winds will be from SE for part of the time.

.SAT...W OF 70W NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...EXCEPT N OF 27N W OF
77W E TO SE 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 TO 25 KT BETWEEN BAHAMAS
AND WINDWARD PASSAGE. SEAS 6 TO 8 FT IN SE SWELL...EXCEPT W OF
BAHAMAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 7 FT.

Saturday morning is when we hope to move up NE (in the shelter of the reef), so as to take some miles off our trip without getting pounded. Yes, we will probably have wind on the nose as we start out eastward, but the engines are working.

.SUN...N OF 28N W OF 70W VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING E TO SE 5 TO 10 KT LATE. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT IN NE TO E SWELL.

We will be a bit south of that.

S OF 28N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...

This is where we will be, headed NE. Still sounds like a bad wind direction for sailing...

EXCEPT 15 TO 20 KT S OF 23N. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT E OF BAHAMAS AND 2 TO 4 FT W OF BAHAMAS.

Low seas we could really support, though! Sun the winds are supposed to moderate through the day, getting weaker by evening. See what they say about Monday?

.MON......N OF 28N W OF 70W VARIABLE S TO SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 3 TO 4 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. FROM 25N TO 28N VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. S OF 25N NE TO E WINDS 10 TO 15 KT...SEAS 5 TO 7 FT E OF BAHAMAS AND 2 TO 4 FT W OF BAHAMAS.

Sounds about as good as it's gonna get. We may have to wait until Monday once we are at our jumping-off anchorage, but that is no problem.

We want to avoid having wind against current in the Gulf Stream if at all possible, light winds better than heavy.

THE APPROXIMATE SHOREWARD EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM AS OF FEBRUARY 1ST...
...
19 NM S OF SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT...OFF MARATHON.
18 NM SE OF ALLIGATOR REEF LIGHT...OFF ISLAMORADA.
15 NM SE OF MOLASSES REEF LIGHT...OFF KEY LARGO.

But it seems that every weather forecast is different. This one is also NWS, for http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?zoneid=AMZ671
FWYF1 Fowey Rocks
Lat: 25.59°N Lon: 80.1°W (slightly NE of us, we will go this way)
Last Update on Feb 2, 12:00 am EST

Saturday Night...East winds 13 to 16 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.

Sunday...Southeast winds 10 to 13 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.

Sunday Night...Southeast winds 5 to 7 knots. Seas 2 feet. Intracoastal waters smooth. Slight chance of showers.

Monday...East northeast winds 6 to 9 knots. Seas 2 feet. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers.

Weird. Sounds OK, but despite the area outlined in red being the forecast area, they make it sound pretty near-coastal.

Another really good graphical predictor (good in the sense of complete, but they were not correct about our trip down here!) is Stormsurf: http://www.stormsurf.com/locals/miami.shtml

They say we should go next Wednesday... ugh... so does windfinder: http://www.windfinder.com/forecast/bahia_honda_key_state_park

So we may just work our way NE and wait to see what the weather does. It's a great area with plenty of places to wait!