SailBlog
24 July 2010
Update, E Caribbean,Sat24, 8a
Update, E Caribbean Sat24, 8a ASCAT: Venezuela Coast to Virgin Islands between 63W- 67W ESE15-20kts. N of Virgin Islands ESE10-15kts. IMAGERY: Squalls winds gusts30kts S of DomRep. Light Showers over Puerto Rico and E of the Virgin Islands. Showers/Squalls from Virgin Islands W of the Windward/Leeward Islands ahead of Tropical Wave. SYNOPSIS: Bonnie is now a Tropical Depression. At 4:00 AM CDT TD Bonnie was located near 27N 85.1W with max sustained winds of 30kts and is moving WNW at 15kts. Earlier this morning satellite imagery indicated a burst in convection near the center of Bonnie, however the most recent satellite images are showing a marked decline in the convection. The last RECON Flight posted flight level winds near 40kts and a 1023MB minimum in SLP. This would indicate that TD Bonnie while maintaining Tropical Depression status and has of yet started any redevelopment. Bonnie is tracking around the periphery of a High pressure in the Carolinas and the Upper-level Low over Mexico. The current forecasts have Bonnie reaching the Gulf Coast near the Louisiana/Mississippi this evening or early tomorrow, Sun25, morning. Winds in squalls ahead of and near Bonnie could reach 45-50kts. However, upper-level shear is forecasted to continue along TD Bonnie�'s path which should hinder any redevelopment of B onnie back to a Tropical Storm. Global models are indicating that Bonnie may dissipate into a trof later today with no closed circulation. With all this mind Bonnie will impact the Gulf Coast with winds in squalls reaching 35G50kts and rough seas 5-6ft thru the next 24hrs. If redevelopment occurs Bonnie will reach land with the maximum impact a minimal Tropical Storm. In the E Caribbean a Tropical Wave is located just W of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Satellite imagery overnight indicated some light showers over the Northern Windward Islands and extending to the Virgin Islands. A stronger area of showers are now developing W of the Windward and Southern Leeward Islands. Scattered showers are still indicated in the Virgin Islands spreading W to Puerto Rico. Wave will continue to move W providing an increase in convection over Puerto Rico today. By this evening the wave will be just E of Puerto Rico and extend S to near Margarita. By Sunday evening the Wave will be in the Mona passage stretching down to the ABC�'s. Showers and moderate squalls will continue near DomRep and W Puerto Rico. Mon26 Wave will enter the W Caribbean stretching from W Haiti S to NE tip of Columbia. Dryer conditions should move into the NE E Caribbean early next week. The next wave to move into the E Caribbean is located to the E near 48W moving W at 17kts it should move into the E Caribbean Wed28. F'cst: Precip: DomRep: Showers/TSTMS possible thru Mon26. VirginIslands & PuertoRico: Scattered Showers/TSTMS today should end early afternoon in the Virgin Islands and continue in Puerto Rico thru Sun25. Windward Islands, Isolated Venezuela & ABCs: Light Showers. Leeward Islands: Very isolated Light Showers in the Easterly WIND: S DomRep: Sat24 085/15-18kts, Sun25 090/15-18kts, Mon26 085/15-18kts, Tue 27080/15kts, Wed28 090/10-15kts PuertoRico: Sat24 100/15kts, Sun25 080/15kts, Mon26 070/15kts, Tue 27095/10-15kts, Wed28 110/10-15kts VirginIsland: Sat24 095/15-18kts, Sun25 070/15kts, Mon26 090/10-15kts, Tue27 095/10-15kts, Wed28 100/10-15kts Leeward: Sat24 100/15kts, Sun25 070/15kts, Mon26 075/10-15kts, Tue 27100/10-15kts, Wed28 100/10-15kts Windward: Sat24 085/15kts, Sun25 065/10-15kts, Mon26 080/10-15kts, Tue27 115/15kts, Wed28 115/10kts Trinidad: Sat24 085/10kts, Sun25 075/10kts, Mon26 085/5-10kts, Tue27 115/10kts, Wed28 105/5-10kts Venezuela: Sat24 085/15kts, Sun25 075/15kts, Mon26 085/5-10kts, Tue27 105/10-15kts, Wed28 115/10-15kts ABCs: Sat24 090/15-20kts, Sun25 100/15-20kts, Mon26 090/15-18kts, Tue27 085/15-18kts, Wed28 105/15-18kts SEAS: S DomRep: Sat24 100/4-5ft 6s, Sun25 100/5-6ft 6s, Mon26 095/4-5ft 6s, Tue27 095/3-4ft 6s, Wed28 090/3-4ft 6s PuertoRico: Sat24 090/3-4ft 6s, Sun25 080/4-5ft 6s, Mon26 080/4-5ft 6s, Tue27 075/3-4ft 6s, Wed28 100/3-4ft 6s VirginIsland: Sat24 085/3-4ft 6s, Sun25 080/4-5ft 6s, Mon26 075/4-6ft 7s, Tue27 080/3-4ft 7s, Wed28 090/3-4ft 6s Leeward: Sat24 085/4-5ft 6s, Sun25 085/4-5ft 6s, Mon26 070/5-6ft 7s, Tue27 075/3-4ft 7s, Wed28 085/3-4ft 6s Windward: Sat24 085/4-5ft 6s, Sun25 075/4-5ft 6s, Mon26 070/5-6ft 7s, Tue27 070/3-4ft 7s, Wed28 075/3-4ft 6s Trinidad: Sat24 085/3-4ft 6s, Sun25 070/3-4ft 6s, Mon26 070/3-4ft 7s, Tue27 065/3-4ft 7s, Wed28 075/3-4ft 7s Venezuela: Sat24 008/3-4ft 5s, Sun25 080/3-4ft 5s, Mon26 065/3-4ft 6s, Tue27 060/3ft 7s, Wed28 085/3ft 5s ABCs: Sat24 085/5-6ft 6s, Sun25 090/5-7ft 6s, Mon26 085/3-5ft 6s, Tue27 070/3-4ft 6s, Wed28 090/3-4ft 5s
23 July 2010
Update, E Caribbean, Fri23, 8a
Update, E Caribbean Fri23, 8a ASCAT: Trinidad N to VirginIsland ENE10-15kts. IMAGERY: Aread of showers still lingering over Puerto Rico and South of DomREP. Some widely scattered showers over the VirginIslands. Windward/Leeward Islands clearing. SYNOPSIS: This morning Tropical Storm Bonnie was located Near 24N 78.5W or just W of Andros Island and moving WNW16kts. At 6:00 am EDT Nassau Airport was reporting Mostly Cloudy conditions with Winds from the SE/15kts with rising Sea Level Pressure. Satellite is indicating an area of strong TSTMSs to the N of the Andros Island and Moderate to Strong Squalls to the E of Andros from Eleuthera to just W of the Abacos. Today Bonnie is projected to move to the NW over the N Keys and the Southern Tip of Fla. Model analysis, satellite data, and most recent Storm Hunter Data are indicating that Bonnie is not well defined and appears to be weakening. Bonnie could become a weak trof as she continues moving NW and picks up speed. The upper-air environment immediately ahead of Bonnie is lest favorable for further development so expect Bonnie to remain a Tropical Storm or weaken slightly over the next 48 hours. However Upper-Level wind shear could weaken in 36-48 hours which will help in redevelop or maintaining Bonnie as Tropical Strom past 48Hrs. By early Fri23 evening Bonnie should be near 25.5N 81W max winds 35kts. By 24/06Z 26.2N 84.1W Max Wind 40kts. By 25/06Z 28.8N 89.1W Max Wind 40kts. By 26/06Z 31.5N 92W Wind 25kts (Inland) . Today Sustained winds of 20-25G30kts are likely in the N Bahamas, Southern Fla, and Fla. Keys Fri.23. Winds in Squalls could reach 35-40kts as Bonnie moves thru Fla, In the E Caribbean light pressure gradient thru tonight then Atlantic High will begin to ridge back into the area Sat24-Wed28 producing some more brisk winds in the E Caribbean from the Central Windward Islands N to VirginIslands and the DomRep. Fair weather today-Sun25 over the E Caribbean from Puerto Rico and E to VirginIslands and S to Venezuela, WAVES: This mornings analysis has a high amplitude wave located near 50W streaching from 5N-21N and move W at 14kts there is little activity indicated near the wave on this mornings satellite, Wave will be approaching the E Caribbean Sun25-Mon26. Second Wave is near 30W move E at 17kts. There are scattered showers associated with the wave and it will follow the first thru the E Caribbean Wed28. F'cst: Precip: DomRep: Clearing this afternoon with next chance of TSTMS Sun25. VirginIslands & PuertoRico: Scattered Showers/today should end this morning. Chance of TSTMS Sun25 Windward Islands, Venezuela & ABCs: Light Showers. Leeward Islands: Chance of TSTMS Sun25 WIND: S DomRep: Fri23 125/15kts, Sat24 085/15kts, Sun25 105/15kts, Mon26 075/15-18kts, Tue 27 085/15kts PuertoRico: Fri23 100/15kts, Sat24 100/15kts, Sun25 085/15kts, Mon26 085/15-18kts, Tue 27 080/10-15kts VirginIsland: Fri23 090/15kts, Sat24 100/15-18kts, Sun25 075/15kts, Mon26 095/15kts, Tue 27 105/10-15kts Leeward: Fri23 075/15kts, Sat24 110/15-18kts, Sun25 065/15kts, Mon26 085/15kts, Tue 27 105/10-15kts Windward: Fri23 085/15kts, Sat24 095/15kts, Sun25 065/10-15kts, Mon26 100/10-15kts, Tue 27 115/15kts Trinidad: Fri23 095/15kts, Sat24 085/10kts, Sun25 065/10kts, Mon26 095/5-10kts, Tue 27 140/10kts Venezuela: Fri23 105/15-18kts, Sat24 090/15kts, Sun25 085/15-18kts, Mon26 100/5-10kts, Tue 27 105/15kts ABCs: Fri23 105/15-20kts, Sat24 090/15-20kts, Sun25 110/15-20kts, Mon26 105/15-18kts, Tue 27 095/15-18kts SEAS: S DomRep: Fri23 120/3-4ft 7s, Sat24 100/4-5ft 6s, Sun25 105/5-6ft 6s, Mon26 090/4-5ft 6s, Tue 27 090/3-4ft 6s PuertoRico: Fri23 100/3-4ft 6s, Sat24 090/4-5ft 6s, Sun25 080/4-5ft 6s, Mon26 075/4-5ft 6s, Tue 27 070/3-4ft 6s VirginIsland: Fri23 095/2-4ft 6s, Sat24 090/4-5ft 6s, Sun25 850/4-5ft 6s, Mon26 085/4-6ft 7s, Tue 27 080/3-4ft 7s Leeward: Fri23 085/3-4ft 6s, Sat24 085/4-5ft 6s, Sun25 075/4-5ft 6s, Mon26 070/5-6ft 7s, Tue 27 080/3-4ft 7s Windward: Fri23 085/4-5ft 6s, Sat24 080/4-5ft 6s, Sun25 075/4-5ft 6s, Mon26 070/5-6ft 7s, Tue 27 070/3-4ft 7s Trinidad: Fri23 075/4-5ft 7s, Sat24 075/3-4ft 6s, Sun25 075/3-4ft 6s, Mon26 070/3-4ft 7s, Tue 27 065/3-4ft 7s Venezuela: Fri23 090/3-4ft 6s, Sat24 075/3-4ft 5s, Sun25 080/3-4ft 5s, Mon26 065/3-4ft 6s, Tue 27 065/3ft 7s ABCs: Fri23 090/4-5ft 7s, Sat24 085/5-6ft 6s, Sun25 085/5-7ft 6s, Mon26 075/3-4ft 6s, Tue 27 085/3-4ft 6s
22 July 2010
Update, E Caribbean, Thu22, 8a
Update, E Caribbean, Thu22, 8a ASCAT: W of Windward from the Coast of Venezuela to 15N ESE 10-15kts. N of 15 N to the Virgin Islands ENE15-20kts. IMAGERY: Scattered Showers lingering in the Northern Leeward Islands, VirginIslands and Puerto Rico this morning. Heavy TSTMS still in S DomRep. Scattered [...]
