Update, E Caribbean Sat24, 8a ASCAT: Venezuela Coast to Virgin Islands between 63W- 67W ESE15-20kts. N of Virgin Islands ESE10-15kts. IMAGERY: Squalls winds gusts30kts S of DomRep. Light Showers over Puerto Rico and E of the Virgin Islands. Showers/Squalls from Virgin Islands W of the Windward/Leeward Islands ahead of Tropical Wave. SYNOPSIS: Bonnie is now a Tropical Depression. At 4:00 AM CDT TD Bonnie was located near 27N 85.1W with max sustained winds of 30kts and is moving WNW at 15kts. Earlier this morning satellite imagery indicated a burst in convection near the center of Bonnie, however the most recent satellite images are showing a marked decline in the convection. The last RECON Flight posted flight level winds near 40kts and a 1023MB minimum in SLP. This would indicate that TD Bonnie while maintaining Tropical Depression status and has of yet started any redevelopment. Bonnie is tracking around the periphery of a High pressure in the Carolinas and the Upper-level Low over Mexico. The current forecasts have Bonnie reaching the Gulf Coast near the Louisiana/Mississippi this evening or early tomorrow, Sun25, morning. Winds in squalls ahead of and near Bonnie could reach 45-50kts. However, upper-level shear is forecasted to continue along TD Bonnie�'s path which should hinder any redevelopment of B onnie back to a Tropical Storm. Global models are indicating that Bonnie may dissipate into a trof later today with no closed circulation. With all this mind Bonnie will impact the Gulf Coast with winds in squalls reaching 35G50kts and rough seas 5-6ft thru the next 24hrs. If redevelopment occurs Bonnie will reach land with the maximum impact a minimal Tropical Storm. In the E Caribbean a Tropical Wave is located just W of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Satellite imagery overnight indicated some light showers over the Northern Windward Islands and extending to the Virgin Islands. A stronger area of showers are now developing W of the Windward and Southern Leeward Islands. Scattered showers are still indicated in the Virgin Islands spreading W to Puerto Rico. Wave will continue to move W providing an increase in convection over Puerto Rico today. By this evening the wave will be just E of Puerto Rico and extend S to near Margarita. By Sunday evening the Wave will be in the Mona passage stretching down to the ABC�'s. Showers and moderate squalls will continue near DomRep and W Puerto Rico. Mon26 Wave will enter the W Caribbean stretching from W Haiti S to NE tip of Columbia. Dryer conditions should move into the NE E Caribbean early next week. The next wave to move into the E Caribbean is located to the E near 48W moving W at 17kts it should move into the E Caribbean Wed28. F'cst: Precip: DomRep: Showers/TSTMS possible thru Mon26. VirginIslands & PuertoRico: Scattered Showers/TSTMS today should end early afternoon in the Virgin Islands and continue in Puerto Rico thru Sun25. Windward Islands, Isolated Venezuela & ABCs: Light Showers. Leeward Islands: Very isolated Light Showers in the Easterly WIND: S DomRep: Sat24 085/15-18kts, Sun25 090/15-18kts, Mon26 085/15-18kts, Tue 27080/15kts, Wed28 090/10-15kts PuertoRico: Sat24 100/15kts, Sun25 080/15kts, Mon26 070/15kts, Tue 27095/10-15kts, Wed28 110/10-15kts VirginIsland: Sat24 095/15-18kts, Sun25 070/15kts, Mon26 090/10-15kts, Tue27 095/10-15kts, Wed28 100/10-15kts Leeward: Sat24 100/15kts, Sun25 070/15kts, Mon26 075/10-15kts, Tue 27100/10-15kts, Wed28 100/10-15kts Windward: Sat24 085/15kts, Sun25 065/10-15kts, Mon26 080/10-15kts, Tue27 115/15kts, Wed28 115/10kts Trinidad: Sat24 085/10kts, Sun25 075/10kts, Mon26 085/5-10kts, Tue27 115/10kts, Wed28 105/5-10kts Venezuela: Sat24 085/15kts, Sun25 075/15kts, Mon26 085/5-10kts, Tue27 105/10-15kts, Wed28 115/10-15kts ABCs: Sat24 090/15-20kts, Sun25 100/15-20kts, Mon26 090/15-18kts, Tue27 085/15-18kts, Wed28 105/15-18kts SEAS: S DomRep: Sat24 100/4-5ft 6s, Sun25 100/5-6ft 6s, Mon26 095/4-5ft 6s, Tue27 095/3-4ft 6s, Wed28 090/3-4ft 6s PuertoRico: Sat24 090/3-4ft 6s, Sun25 080/4-5ft 6s, Mon26 080/4-5ft 6s, Tue27 075/3-4ft 6s, Wed28 100/3-4ft 6s VirginIsland: Sat24 085/3-4ft 6s, Sun25 080/4-5ft 6s, Mon26 075/4-6ft 7s, Tue27 080/3-4ft 7s, Wed28 090/3-4ft 6s Leeward: Sat24 085/4-5ft 6s, Sun25 085/4-5ft 6s, Mon26 070/5-6ft 7s, Tue27 075/3-4ft 7s, Wed28 085/3-4ft 6s Windward: Sat24 085/4-5ft 6s, Sun25 075/4-5ft 6s, Mon26 070/5-6ft 7s, Tue27 070/3-4ft 7s, Wed28 075/3-4ft 6s Trinidad: Sat24 085/3-4ft 6s, Sun25 070/3-4ft 6s, Mon26 070/3-4ft 7s, Tue27 065/3-4ft 7s, Wed28 075/3-4ft 7s Venezuela: Sat24 008/3-4ft 5s, Sun25 080/3-4ft 5s, Mon26 065/3-4ft 6s, Tue27 060/3ft 7s, Wed28 085/3ft 5s ABCs: Sat24 085/5-6ft 6s, Sun25 090/5-7ft 6s, Mon26 085/3-5ft 6s, Tue27 070/3-4ft 6s, Wed28 090/3-4ft 5s

Update, E Caribbean, Fri23, 8a

Update, E Caribbean Fri23, 8a ASCAT: Trinidad N to VirginIsland ENE10-15kts. IMAGERY: Aread of showers still lingering over Puerto Rico and South of DomREP. Some widely scattered showers over the VirginIslands. Windward/Leeward Islands clearing. SYNOPSIS: This morning Tropical Storm Bonnie was located Near 24N 78.5W or just W of Andros Island and moving WNW16kts. At 6:00 am EDT Nassau Airport was reporting Mostly Cloudy conditions with Winds from the SE/15kts with rising Sea Level Pressure. Satellite is indicating an area of strong TSTMSs to the N of the Andros Island and Moderate to Strong Squalls to the E of Andros from Eleuthera to just W of the Abacos. Today Bonnie is projected to move to the NW over the N Keys and the Southern Tip of Fla. Model analysis, satellite data, and most recent Storm Hunter Data are indicating that Bonnie is not well defined and appears to be weakening. Bonnie could become a weak trof as she continues moving NW and picks up speed. The upper-air environment immediately ahead of Bonnie is lest favorable for further development so expect Bonnie to remain a Tropical Storm or weaken slightly over the next 48 hours. However Upper-Level wind shear could weaken in 36-48 hours which will help in redevelop or maintaining Bonnie as Tropical Strom past 48Hrs. By early Fri23 evening Bonnie should be near 25.5N 81W max winds 35kts. By 24/06Z 26.2N 84.1W Max Wind 40kts. By 25/06Z 28.8N 89.1W Max Wind 40kts. By 26/06Z 31.5N 92W Wind 25kts (Inland) . Today Sustained winds of 20-25G30kts are likely in the N Bahamas, Southern Fla, and Fla. Keys Fri.23. Winds in Squalls could reach 35-40kts as Bonnie moves thru Fla, In the E Caribbean light pressure gradient thru tonight then Atlantic High will begin to ridge back into the area Sat24-Wed28 producing some more brisk winds in the E Caribbean from the Central Windward Islands N to VirginIslands and the DomRep. Fair weather today-Sun25 over the E Caribbean from Puerto Rico and E to VirginIslands and S to Venezuela, WAVES: This mornings analysis has a high amplitude wave located near 50W streaching from 5N-21N and move W at 14kts there is little activity indicated near the wave on this mornings satellite, Wave will be approaching the E Caribbean Sun25-Mon26. Second Wave is near 30W move E at 17kts. There are scattered showers associated with the wave and it will follow the first thru the E Caribbean Wed28. F'cst: Precip: DomRep: Clearing this afternoon with next chance of TSTMS Sun25. VirginIslands & PuertoRico: Scattered Showers/today should end this morning. Chance of TSTMS Sun25 Windward Islands, Venezuela & ABCs: Light Showers. Leeward Islands: Chance of TSTMS Sun25 WIND: S DomRep: Fri23 125/15kts, Sat24 085/15kts, Sun25 105/15kts, Mon26 075/15-18kts, Tue 27 085/15kts PuertoRico: Fri23 100/15kts, Sat24 100/15kts, Sun25 085/15kts, Mon26 085/15-18kts, Tue 27 080/10-15kts VirginIsland: Fri23 090/15kts, Sat24 100/15-18kts, Sun25 075/15kts, Mon26 095/15kts, Tue 27 105/10-15kts Leeward: Fri23 075/15kts, Sat24 110/15-18kts, Sun25 065/15kts, Mon26 085/15kts, Tue 27 105/10-15kts Windward: Fri23 085/15kts, Sat24 095/15kts, Sun25 065/10-15kts, Mon26 100/10-15kts, Tue 27 115/15kts Trinidad: Fri23 095/15kts, Sat24 085/10kts, Sun25 065/10kts, Mon26 095/5-10kts, Tue 27 140/10kts Venezuela: Fri23 105/15-18kts, Sat24 090/15kts, Sun25 085/15-18kts, Mon26 100/5-10kts, Tue 27 105/15kts ABCs: Fri23 105/15-20kts, Sat24 090/15-20kts, Sun25 110/15-20kts, Mon26 105/15-18kts, Tue 27 095/15-18kts SEAS: S DomRep: Fri23 120/3-4ft 7s, Sat24 100/4-5ft 6s, Sun25 105/5-6ft 6s, Mon26 090/4-5ft 6s, Tue 27 090/3-4ft 6s PuertoRico: Fri23 100/3-4ft 6s, Sat24 090/4-5ft 6s, Sun25 080/4-5ft 6s, Mon26 075/4-5ft 6s, Tue 27 070/3-4ft 6s VirginIsland: Fri23 095/2-4ft 6s, Sat24 090/4-5ft 6s, Sun25 850/4-5ft 6s, Mon26 085/4-6ft 7s, Tue 27 080/3-4ft 7s Leeward: Fri23 085/3-4ft 6s, Sat24 085/4-5ft 6s, Sun25 075/4-5ft 6s, Mon26 070/5-6ft 7s, Tue 27 080/3-4ft 7s Windward: Fri23 085/4-5ft 6s, Sat24 080/4-5ft 6s, Sun25 075/4-5ft 6s, Mon26 070/5-6ft 7s, Tue 27 070/3-4ft 7s Trinidad: Fri23 075/4-5ft 7s, Sat24 075/3-4ft 6s, Sun25 075/3-4ft 6s, Mon26 070/3-4ft 7s, Tue 27 065/3-4ft 7s Venezuela: Fri23 090/3-4ft 6s, Sat24 075/3-4ft 5s, Sun25 080/3-4ft 5s, Mon26 065/3-4ft 6s, Tue 27 065/3ft 7s ABCs: Fri23 090/4-5ft 7s, Sat24 085/5-6ft 6s, Sun25 085/5-7ft 6s, Mon26 075/3-4ft 6s, Tue 27 085/3-4ft 6s

Update, E Caribbean, Thu22, 8a

Update, E Caribbean, Thu22, 8a ASCAT: W of Windward from the Coast of Venezuela to 15N ESE 10-15kts. N of 15 N to the Virgin Islands ENE15-20kts. IMAGERY: Scattered Showers lingering in the Northern Leeward Islands, VirginIslands and Puerto Rico this morning. Heavy TSTMS still in S DomRep. Scattered [...]

Update, E Caribbean, Mon19, 8a

19 July 2010

Update, E Caribbean, Mon19, 8a ASCAT: Coastal Venezuela to Puerto Rico/VirginIslands ESE/10-15kts. N of Puerto Rico/VirginIslands ENE 15-20kts IMAGERY: Tropical Wave producing area of Scattered showers from 15N to 18N. Broad area of TSTMS over Virginslands N to 24N and W to 68W. Scattered TSTMS S of Puerto Rico extends SE to near 16N 63.5W. Southern E Caribbean clear of any enhanced activity. SYNOPOIS. High Pressure continues to Ridge from the High in the Atlantic into N Fla. Several small Tropical Waves/Inverted Sfc trofs are moving thru the Northern Bahamas, Fla. and the Gulf of Mexico today. Wave in the Central Gulf of Mexico is moving NW around the base of the High it is producing some enhance convective activity but nothing severe, Second Wave is over the SE coast of Fla. this morning and is moving NW. It will produce some showers/TSTMS over Southern Fla. today. Third wave over Central Cuba will continue to move to the West and enter the Gulf of Mexico later on Mon19. In the E Caribbean Tropical Waves continue moving thru the region. WAVES: Wave 1: This morning a wave is extending N across the Leeward and VirginIslands into the Atlantic. Wave is moving NW at 12kts. A concentrated area of showers over the Leeward/VirginIslands is extending N into the Atlantic and W toward Puerto Rico. Upper-level support is weak, expect little development to this system in next 2 days. Gusty winds and enhance showers/TSTMS will continue in the N Leeward�'s, VirginIslands, Puerto Rico today. Showers will reach the T&C�'s, DomRep tonight thru Tue20. Wave 2: Second Tropical Wave extending from E Cuba, S to Jamaica and across the Central Caribbean is producing scattered showers/TSTMS from Jamaica South into the Central Caribbean and W to the Cayman Islands. Wave is moving W at 12kts there are no indications of sfc circulation associated with the wave, little development is expected in next 2 days. Wave will move into the W Caribbean today and thru by Tue Early Wed spreading showers and TSTMS over Central America from Costa Rica to the Yucatan Tue20/Wed21. WAVE 3: Well to the East of the E Caribbean will press into the E Caribbean late Thu22

F'cst: Precip: DomRep: Large area of Showers (Some isolated squalls to 20-30k) will move into area later today and continue thru Mon19 evening into Early Tue20 VirginIslands & PuertoRico: Scattered TSTMS today should end this evening. Then a settled period till next wave Thu-Fri Windward Islands, Venezuela & ABCs: clear today some light am showers Tue20 Leeward Islands: Isolated Showers Leeward Islands all day as trailing energy from the Wave passes over the region.. WIND: S DomRep: Mon19 095/10kts, Tue20 120/10kts, Wed21 105/10kts, Thu22 130/15kts, Fri23 120/15kts PuertoRico: Mon19 105/10kts, Tue20 110/10kts, Wed21 110/10-15kts, Thu22 120/15-18kts, Fri23 105/15kts VirginIsland: Mon19 105/10-15kts, Tue20 100/15kts, Wed21 120/15kts, Thu22 110/15kts, Fri23 100/15-18kts Leeward: Mon19 110/10-15kts, Tue20 105/10-15kts, Wed21 115/15kts, Thu22 110/15kts, Fri23 090/15-18kts Windward: Mon19 105/10kts, Tue20 090/10-15kts, Wed21 115/15kts, Thu22 110/15kts, Fri23 095/15kts Trinidad: Mon19 095/10kts, Tue20 085/10kts, Wed21 105/15kts, Thu22 100/15kts, Fri23 100/15kts Venezuela: Mon19 125/10kts, Tue20 100/10kts, Wed21 100/10kts, Thu22 110/15-18kts, Fri23 105/15-18kts ABCs: Mon19 110/10-15kts, Tue20 125/10-15kts, Wed21 100/10-15kts, Thu22 115/15-18kts, Fri23 105/15-18kts SEAS: S DomRep: Mon19 100/3ft 5s, Tue20 080/3-4ft 8s, Wed21 130/3ft 7s, Thu22 105/3-4ft 5s, Fri23 110/5-6ft 7s PuertoRico: Mon19 065/3-4ft 8s, Tue20 070/3-4ft 8s, Wed21 090/4-5ft 7s, Thu22 115/4-5ft 6s, Fri23 095/4-5ft 6s VirginIsland: Mon19 075/4-5ft 8s, Tue20 075/4-5ft 8s, Wed21 085/4-5ft 7s, Thu22 095/4-5ft 6s, Fri23 090/5-6ft 6s Leeward: Mon19 070/4-5ft 8s, Tue20 070/4-5ft 8s, Wed21 085/4-5ft 7s, Thu22 090/4-5ft 6s, Fri23 085/5-6ft 6s Windward: Mon19 065/3-4ft 8s, Tue20 070/3-4ft 8s, Wed21 095/5-6ft 7s, Thu22 090/4-6ft 6s, Fri23 080/4-5ft 6s Trinidad: Mon19 060/3-4ft 8s, Tue20 065/3-4ft 7s, Wed21 080/4-5ft 7s, Thu22 , Fri23 080/5-6ft 7s Venezuela: Mon19 065/2-3ft 8s, Tue20 095/3-4ft 6s, Wed21 065/3-4ft 5s, Thu22 095/5-6ft 6s, Fri23 090/3-4ft 6s ABCs: Mon19 060/3-4ft 5s, Tue20 115/3-4ft 6s, Wed21 095/3-4ft 5s, Thu22 105/3-4ft 5s, Fri23 090/5-6ft 7s

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