H Minus 4
August 24, 2011
Depending on storm track, it might be Saturday evening before Hurricane Irene makes landfall. That is if it hits anywhere near Wilmington. The storm track is influenced by a number of factors not the least of which is a low pressure approaching the storm track from the northwest. Already, the models and forecast track have shifted the expected approach to the east or perhaps even east of Cape Hatteras. What does all this mean? First, it is just a forecast and, as we have seen many times, subject to radical change any time. This far out one cannot view predictions as reliable. In 2008, Why Knot was in Corpus Christi. We were warned of a doozie which targeted that area. We did the boat prep thing and waited. A day or so before it was to strike CC, it took a radical turn and old Ike slammed Galveston Island. CC barely saw any wind. The second thing is that the present trend is for Irene to do more easting and maybe even miss Cape Hatteras altogether. That is good news for Wilmington. The pucker factor diminishes for one area and climbs for another. Maybe there is a greater reason we did not make the Chesapeake this year. Then again, the fat lady has yet to even get to the stage on this one.
One thing is for certain: it is good to have visited the Abacos last winter since they are in the midst of Irene. Hopetown and Marsh Harbor may not see the eye of that storm but they will see very high winds and storm surge. The present predictions is for them to see up to 120 knots of wind for twelve hours plus. Thus, the visitors this winter might encounter a different place that we visited. We hope Irene continues to veer east and minimize impact on those beautiful islands.