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Who: Kimball Corson. Text and Photos not disclaimed or that are obviously not mine are copyright (c) Kimball Corson 2004-2016
Port: Lake Pleasant, AZ
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22 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
22 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
22 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
09 August 2017 | Pago Pago, American Samoa

Tipping Point Nonsense

10 November 2016 | Pago Pago, American Samoa
Kimball Corson
One of the arguments against modern monetary theory is the tipping point claim. That is, when the ratio of public debt to GDP hits a certain level, countries collapse or have their growth slow or collapse. The World Bank and super conservative Peterson Institute think the magic number is 70%. Rogoff & Reinhart, in their challenged study, think it is 90%. Both have no plausible theory or logical reason for why, only what I contend is the bogus misuse of data. In truth, they are both wrong. Here is why.

The idea that there is a common tipping point in the relationship between public debt and economic growth is still widespread. However, this is likely due to a misinterpretation and misaggregation of data, that is of the existing evidence. Once we allow for the relationship between debt and growth to be country-specific, as a new study shows, there is only quite limited evidence supporting the presence of a within-countries debt threshold.

Other factors and circumstances overwhelm as they factor in. The matter is much more complicated. For examples, how much of the public debt is governmentally owned? Who owns the rest? How well is the country's debt managed? How well is the country's debt accepted and used as a store of value for near cash hoarding? Is inflation under control? Etc, ad nausium.
Comments
Vessel Name: Altaira
Vessel Make/Model: A Fair Weather Mariner 39 is a fast (PHRF 132), heavily ballasted (43%), high-aspect (6:1), stiff, comfortable, offshore performance cruiser by Bob Perry that goes to wind well (30 deg w/ good headway) and is also good up and down the Beaufort scale.
Hailing Port: Lake Pleasant, AZ
Crew: Kimball Corson. Text and Photos not disclaimed or that are obviously not mine are copyright (c) Kimball Corson 2004-2016
About:
Kimball Corson: I am a 75 year old solo sailor, by choice. However, I did take on a personable, but high maintenance female kitten, now a full grown cat, named KiKiPoo when she is sweet, or KatKatPo after she has just killed something like a bird or bat. [...]
Extra:
Although I was a lawyer and practiced law with good success for thirty years, creating significant new law, I never really believed in the law, the politics of law or in the over reaching self-interest of most lawyers I met. Too much exposure to Nietzsche and other good and seriously thoughtful [...]
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Profile

Who: Kimball Corson. Text and Photos not disclaimed or that are obviously not mine are copyright (c) Kimball Corson 2004-2016
Port: Lake Pleasant, AZ