Tuesday night later
14 February 2018 | the 40s.
Alan and Katy
[I wrote Alan that I thought Met Bob is right, going north is better than going south!!
Evidence:
If I position you at 95degrees W/ 43 degrees S, at the worst time (3pm Friday) you will have 43 mph winds/gusts to 62mph (Euro model);43/55 gusts (US model).
If I position you at 95 degreesW/42 degrees S, at that same time, you will have 37/54 (Euro Model) or 36/47 (US model).
The contrast is even more stark if I position you at 97 degrees West/ 41 degrees south versus 97 degrees west/44 degrees south: the more northerly location experiences the strongest conditions at 11 am: ([EurvsUS] winds36 mph vs41mph [gusts51vs49]; The more southerly (44degreesS) is way bad: at 1 pm you have[EurvsUS] 51 mph winds vs 46 mph[gusts 71 mph vs 59 mph]. So this is why I think met bob is correct. You would have to go much further south.
If I put you at 41 degrees south and 95 degrees here is what is predicted at noon on Friday:
Eur: winds 34 mph and 46 mph gusts. US: winds 38 mph/45 mph gusts
Wherever you are in that area, you will likely get 18-20+ foot swells (11 seconds periods)in the time after the biggest windspeeds. Alan responded with an Irridium call and he told me that he would not reach 95 west, but that he would be able to get to 100 west. He decided to go north rather than south. and could probably get to 41 south.]